I should point out that when we say
alternative energy strategymost people think in terms of an
alternative energy strategy . One of the options that I consider plausible is an
alternative energy strategy.
To clarify: our strategy may be (may have to be) acceptance that we are unable to deliver the energy levels that we have come to take for the norm in the West, and which China, India, and the rest of the world, aspires to. Our strategy may be to retrench; to suffer economic collapse. Not an attractive prospect, but a plausible one.
In the worst case version of this scenario we have an apocalyptic collapse of civilisation. (Still, if it gets rid of McDonalds it won't be all bad.)
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Originally Posted by Michaelangelica
We have to start pumping water down the holes to get the oil up.
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This is as much about maximising oil recovery as it is about forcing the oil out of the ground. We not only want to maintain reservoir pressure by pumping water (or gas) back into the reservoir, in properly located wellbores, but the water can be used (with suitable chemicals added) to
sweep the oil in front of it to the production boreholes.
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Originally Posted by Michaelangelica
We have to start pumping water down the holes to get the oil up. Many say we are at Peak oil now give (10) or take (2) years.
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I don't entirely rule out these pessimistic estimates, but for several reasons I think they are unlikely:
1) Advances in seismic prospecting have enabled identification of subtle reservoirs with greater precision.
2) Advances in drilling technology have transformed the economics of developing many fields.
3) The present high price (and potentially higher price) of oil makes many previously marginal fields economic.
4) We continue to develop improved recovery techniques.
5) Russia remains hugely inefficient at producing and transporting its oil.
6) The Middle East production has generally focused on the easily found, large reservoirs. There is likely a lot in there that has not been tapped.
