Actually, whilst we might have gazillions of barrels left in
already found wells, Peak Oil refers to the point where it actually takes
more oil to recover a certain amount of the black stuff. If you're sitting with an immense well that's in such an inaccessable spot and deep underground that it might take you ten liters to recover nine, the well is unsupportable and, as far as that well is concerned, *peak oil* has come and gone. The actual peak is where you break even, for instance, it takes ten liters to get out ten liters, which means that from this specific point onwards, you're wasting your time with this particular well. Global *Peak Oil* means the same, for the global industry combined.
There are vast resources available, like the Canadian tar sands, which is just lying there, ripe for the picking. Only problem, to recover the oil from these sands economically, depends on a much higher oil price. It seems we're heading there. And once it happens, and it becomes viable to mine the tar sands, we'll have access to an oil resource that might be comparable to the total reserves ever found in the Middle East - at a much higher price, of course. So I don't think there'll be an immediate crash after global 'peak oil' has been achieved, prices will simply rise to the point where vast resources (like the Canadian Tar sands) becomes viable. And then we'll reciprocate by buying smaller cars, taxing SUV's into oblivion, and becoming more energy-conscious. Which might, ultimately, be a good thing. But the oil will keep flowing.
Also, SASOL's economically sound version of the Fischer-Tropsch process might render vast coalfields into oil resources - which will be good for the US, as the US might be regarded as the 'Middle East of Coal'. We have around 200 to 300 years' worth of known Coal reserves. SASOL actually changes coal into oil at a price of around $30 to $40 a barrel. They are making massive profits on oil production and sales without having a single drop of oil. Once we start taking the SASOL method into large-scale global production, we'll be safe for many generations to come, as far as oil production is concerned. With this in mind, I don't think we'll see a global oil production crash in our lifetimes, at least.
A very good resource on this is at
DIE OFF - a population crash resource page - don't let the initial look of the site put you off; it was slapped together rather haphazardly. But it contains really insightful articles on population die-offs, and peak oil. There are also plenty articles bringing the two together, written by notable scientists.
The best advice might be to get a cabin in the mountains somewhere and wait the storm out, armed with a shotgun to keep the hungry looters and petrol zombies away from the front door...
- or simply to be a good capitalist and buy up SASOL shares and become a gazillionaire in the next ten to twenty years.
