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Old 10-22-2007   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Ww3

The leader of Iran is using the politics of promises to maintain is popular base. Instead of a chicken in every pot, it is a combination of nukes and death to the infidels. This is what his support base wants to hear. He does not have to provide this, since it is like a campaign promise.

He is hoping the Democrats win the White House. This would give him a way to gracefully back out the promise. The Republicans are keeping his feet to the fire, sort of setting a deadline, where he has to pee or get off the pot. This alternative is no-win for him, so he prays to Allah that the Democrats will help him save face.

The concern is that he could be playing chess. Saving face, combined with a miltary scale down by the US, could allow him time to slip under the radar and then cause a regional problem when America is less prepared. A Democratic campaign promise involves redeploying the troops. The Republicans are are trying to stop the 2 act play, in Act 1. But maybe the Democrats are also making a campaign promise, they don't intend to keep, such that his double cross will become doubled crossed. This could unintentionally lead to peace. Sort of falling on a lottery ticket. Then everyone can pretend they were thinking this all the time.
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