Quote:
Originally Posted by Turtle
Meteorologists have this, and other major disagreements with the climatologists. No small part of which is that the best computer weather models simply can't go beyond 7-10 days with useable accuracy, and as climatology is the study of weather patterns this doesn't give a boost of confidence for climatological computer models.
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It may not be obvious to you, but it's obvious to me. You're confusing two separate measures.
The basic claim you are making is, "Nobody believes a weather prediction twelve hours ahead, yet we're asked to believe a prediction that goes out 100 years into the future. Isn't this ridiculous?"
Let me give an example to show the two measures to which I refer.
You are at the beach, and the waves coming off the choppy waters hit a wall on the shore at that beach. None of us would be able to place a line on that wall that predicts the exact height or surface level of the next incoming wave at any specific point on the wall 30 seconds in advance. This is akin to predicting the weather of the coming week.
However, we could absolutely place a line on the wall that accurately predicts the mean surface level (+/- chop) four hours in advance as long as we knew know the state of the tide when we'd arrived. That is akin to predicting the future state of the climate, and it is based on measurable trends.
Here's another.
Just because I cannot tell you the exact outcome of a specific coin flip does not mean I cannot tell you what the average outcome of coin flips will be over 1,000 tosses (and that includes allowing for the possibility that the coin lands on it's edge).
They are two very different measurements, and I hope you realize why.
Also, I've already shown the relative forcing factors... volcanoes included. PLEASE read the previous posts and links if you are serious about this conversation. If you are not serious, then why participate?
