Quote:
Originally Posted by Turtle
Again, the models do not factor in many of the underwater pehenomena that involve CO2 or heating. This is not so much because they don't want to, it is because they don't have reliable data on the extent of these influencing factors. If powers that be want to make a decision to action based on what data they have, and they can muster the political power to do so, then so it goes.  |
Turtle - You're simply placing doubt on the models themselves. Until you show that the impact of underwater volcanism is a significant contributor to global climate change and warming, your comments above are non-sequitur.
Btw... This is another classic denialist approach which has been debunked.
Models are unreliable
Quote:
There is a notion that we should wait till models are 100% sure and get it perfectly right before we act on reducing CO2 emissions. If we waited for that, we would never act. Models are in a constant state of improvement as they include more processes, rely on fewer approximations and increase their resolution as computer power develops. The complex and non-linear nature of climate means there will always be refinements and subtleties to be included.
The main point is we know enough to act. Models have evolved to the point where they successfully predict long term trends and are always improving on predicting the more chaotic, short term changes. Multiple lines of evidence tell us global temperatures will change 3°C with a doubling of CO2. The uncertainty is ±1°C degree but this uncertainty is decreasing (and the climate sensitivity of 3°C reaffirmed) as new studies refine our understanding.
Models don't need to be exact in every respect to give us an accurate overall trend and its major effects - and we have that now. If you knew there was a 10% chance you'd be in a car crash, you'd wear a seatbelt. In fact, if there was any possibility, you'd still do it. The IPCC consider it at least 90% sure humans are causing global warming. Considering the negative impacts of global warming, to wait for 100% certainty before acting is recklessly irresponsible.
|
