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Old 02-26-2008   #100 (permalink)
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M.C. Grillmeister



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Climate Model Skepticisim and Complex Systems

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turtle View Post
I have never based my skepticism of the models purely on underwater volcanism, and in fact my skepticism of the models lies primarily in the mathematics of complex systems.
Fair enough, please excuse my use of the word "purely".

Quote:
The argument that just because the models have improved that they are sufficient for basing political and economic actions intended to influence the climate is vacuous.
I made no assertion of their sufficiency. I was merely pointing out that they are constantly improving. I can't claim to understand the mathematics involved in these models, but I do understand math to a certain degree, so it would be great if you could point out the shortcomings of the models in accordance with complex systems.

Quote:
If modeling complex systems is as accurate as you imply, such models would be making billions for people trading at the stock exchange.
How do you know that's not happening?

With Science, it is usually baby steps. We will probably never be able to perfectly model Chaos. Should we stop trying?
Or better yet, will our curiosity allow us to stop?

Quote:
What kind of improvement is going from very bad to moderately bad?
Moving from "very bad" to "moderately bad" *is* an improvement (objectively speaking).


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