A few questions if anyone needs some references to think through this issue:
1. Which decade did we discover the most oil?
2. How has the discovery of conventional oil been going since then?
Keep in mind that oil is probably only 2nd to the military in terms of the money and technology available to their enterprise.
3. What is the ratio of discovery to consumption – are we discovering more than we use, or less? How good or 'bad' is the ratio?
4. How many oil producing countries have already peaked and are in irreversible decline?
5. Which countries are still able increase production and have not reached their all time historical peak??
6. Do these nations allow the international community to audit their reserves to the verify this claim, or are they closed to outside audit?
7. If domestic consumption of oil exporting nations rises too fast because of a booming domestic economy, how quickly can domestic consumption outpace their ability to export post peak? (Hint: there are historical precedents — google "Export Land Model").
Answer a few of these and one might start to feel a little
