Quote:
Originally Posted by mynah
Perhaps - but it would be very hard to either prove or disprove that H1N1 circulated in humans before 1918. The virulence of the disease suggests a species jump
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Yeah, you've got a good point there. In fact, I went to school a stone's throw from Ft. Riley (Kansas State).
I personally think the severity of an epidemic or pandemic has as much to do with the mutations of the virus as the immunity of those infected. Why, for example, was the 1951 epidemic so much worse in Liverpool as the rest of England? Could the people of Liverpool lacked an immunity that the rest of the country had? I don't think so. The only reasonable explanation would seem to be with the virus - some subtle mutation as it spread.
Death rates in Liverpool were higher in '51 than from Spanish flu in '18 & '19. Had the '51 H1N1 strain kept it's virulent nature as it spread out of the heart of England it's easy to imagine a pandemic as bad as during World War 1.
Then again, there are examples like Russian flu of '77 which was clearly lessened in virulence with anyone who was exposed to a similar strain in '47 - '57. So, immunity is, of course, a factor.
I just hope we're not ruling out the possibility that H1N1 could make itself very deadly again. An unrelenting pandemic for which there is no natural immunity does not seem impossible. If Spanish flu got out of the lab...
I guess, at least we have vaccinations now
~modest
