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Originally Posted by mynah
I mentioned rabies specifically because it is one of the conditions that are problematic as far as the definition of a species jump is concerned. (Its unique and aggressive mode of transmission is responsible for its widespread presence in many mammals, rather than its transmissibility.) Australian bat lyssavirus (which is present in most states, but not outside Australia) is not a typical rabies virus, and appears to be quite different from the canine rabies virus - but that is a very interesting question! The original host of rabies viruses has never been found, but is most likely to be an African bat. There are several rabies strains that do not spread all that readily between species: If a rabid dog bites another dog and a human, for instance, the dog is far more likely than the human to get rabies.
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Australian bat lyssavirus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Thought a link to ABLV might be useful.
There are many variables regarding infection rates of rabies, I would like to see a link verifying a dog is more likely to get rabies than a human all things being equal. There are variables in how infected the source dog is, how deep the bite wound, how many bites, etc (such as related bleeding, viral access to central nervous system, etc) which do impact the rate of infection for all mammals as I understand it. There can be some very long incubation rates before rabies symptoms appear, but again, the body is not recognizing this virus as an invader, allowing it to continue to reproduce before it finally finds a way into the central nervous system.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mynah
I was referring to avian flu specifically, but perhaps it is too early to speak of the tide turning: Around 1975 the WHO thought it had malaria licked. There has been a decline in the number of cases of avian flu, but vigilance should be maintained. Worryingly, recent cases appear to have an increased mortality rate - although it could be that at the height of the outbreak more people with milder symptoms reported to doctors, or that doctors were more likely to have patients with flu symptoms tested.
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Define vigilance. We had people mass consuming anti-virals to the point of causing shortages, price hikes and worse yet drug resistant flu strains all due to the increased awareness of a handful of cases of infections.
We diverted millions of dollars of research funding to investigate. How much time was lost on these other issues? How many other proven infection control programs lost funding (such as malaria) as funds were re-allocated to chase this particular OMG! the Experts Say We Gotta Do Something Now headline news bulletin flashed across the screen. We wont ever know.
And after all of this, we still dont have a mutated H5N1, and if I remember correctly, if it does mutate to a deadly epidemic/pandemic type infection, it will still take 6 months before the first vaccinations are available to the people on the short list (you know, politicians, their families, etc) and the medical people, emergency responders, etc.
6 of 1, half dozen of another. I really dont worry too much about what if a new disease pops up in the congo, in viet-nam, in china....
