Science Forums 2

[Nitack]

I believe there is another outcome that has not been put forth.

Remember, that as level of education and standard of living rises, the children per family generally falls. Individuals who do not expect a high child mortality rate and do not believe that children are a retirement plan will naturally have fewer children in order to concentrate their resources on the fewer that they have. Both India and China have rapidly improving standards of living. It can be expected (already the case for china) that birth rates will dramatically drop in those countries over the next generation or two. When you take over 2 Billion people out of the equation of exponential reproduction the predictions on the rate of overpopulation get much less steep. The standard of living is rising in both Latin America and in Asia. Once it reaches the tipping point we will actually see the world population start to decrease I think.

The major question mark is Africa. The continent as a whole is in shambles and it appears that it will continue that way for quite a while. Africa has plenty of resources to become economically powerful, but does not have certain resources (oil, except in a few places) that would make more developed powers impose order as has been done in the Middle East. The frank truth is that birth rates there will continue to be high because the standard of living will not go up as the political turmoil there continues. Individuals have a very high expectation of them, or their children dying from war, famine, AIDS, or other disease, and the rest of the world does not care enough to do anything about it just for the sake of humanity.

Africa aside. I think the population bomb will actually slowly snuff itself out. The truth threat will not be food riots due to overpopulation beyond what the earth can support. Rather, the true threat lies in energy wars. It is highly unlikely that any combination of renewable energy will be able to ween us off fossil fuels in the next thirty to forty years. We will fight over oil and possibly over natural gas.