Science Forums 2

[charles brough]

It would be enlightening to make a prediction in public, then check back later and see how it was shaping up in the real world.

Is anyone willing to make prediction of where the economy will go from here---and when?

If so, let's make our predictions and then, when we've finished, save the link (its under "tools" and then "page info") on our "bookmark" or "favorites" so we can check back in 6 to 12 months and see who has done the best.

Where the fun comes in is that people tend to have no idea what the economy will do, but when it turns around, they have marvelous hind-sight and are convinced they know it was going to turn around then ahead of time.
If we have it down and saved, we all avoid rationalizing. This alone will discourage some from making a prediction . . .

Here is my prediction:

"I believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the area of its lows between 8000 & 9.500. I believe the stock prices will go up steadily from this level soon, but that the general economic conditions will continue to deteriorate for the next approximate six months as the government spends money to reverse the trend. In the Spring, I believe commodity prices will start rising and, into the summer, business will start improving. I think the shortness of the downturn and the pace of the recovery will surprise everyone. Home prices will be rising and the mortgage crisis will be over. All the new money plowed into the economy to reverse the downtrend will, however, cause an accompanying increase in prices---so much so that we have hyperinflation."

As you all know, I could be very wrong on each count. So, lets see what we can come up with.