Science Forums 2

[Erasmus00]

You need to try and model your effect using known laws. Using the known empirical law of "bikins are uncomfortable in cold weather," we could construct a mathematical model that would make the prediction that temperature drives bikini rates. This hypothesis could be studied by putting women in bikinis with overcoats in temperature controlled rooms and adjusting the heat. This data would allow us to further improve the "bikinis are uncomfortable in cold weather" model which would further refine our model and further refine the causal relationship. After quantifying the "bikinis are uncomfortable in cold weather" law, we could even predict the new number of green bikinis per month based on the temperature.

To move to global warming, using the known property of CO2 (i.e. CO2 absorbs infrared radiation) we can make a model. This model would predict that CO2 drives temperature. We could refine our hypothesis by putting CO2 in controlled environments and measuring its properties. Its more complicated then your bikini model (CO2 also drives temperature a bit, so care must be taken), but these models have been made, and they make predictions.

In short: your analogy is flawed. It presents the data, but completely ignores the science (the why) behind everything. The mechanism at work is well understood!