Quote:
Originally Posted by Erasmus00
You need to try and model your effect using known laws. Using the known empirical law of "bikins are uncomfortable in cold weather," we could construct a mathematical model that would make the prediction that temperature drives bikini rates. This hypothesis could be studied by putting women in bikinis with overcoats in temperature controlled rooms and adjusting the heat. This data would allow us to further improve the "bikinis are uncomfortable in cold weather" model which would further refine our model and further refine the causal relationship. After quantifying the "bikinis are uncomfortable in cold weather" law, we could even predict the new number of green bikinis per month based on the temperature.
To move to global warming, using the known property of CO2 (i.e. CO2 absorbs infrared radiation) we can make a model. This model would predict that CO2 drives temperature. We could refine our hypothesis by putting CO2 in controlled environments and measuring its properties. Its more complicated then your bikini model (CO2 also drives temperature a bit, so care must be taken), but these models have been made, and they make predictions.
In short: your analogy is flawed. It presents the data, but completely ignores the science (the why) behind everything. The mechanism at work is well understood!
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Well, consider these parallels:
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CO2 is historically known to follow temperature - temperature goes up, then a few hundred years later CO2 rises. Temperature goes down, then CO2 goes down. (link to back this up below)
Bikinis are also known to follow temperature - temperature goes up, then bikinis go up. Temperature goes down, then bikinis go down. The time frame is shorter but the relationship is the same as that between CO2 and temps.
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CO2 absorbs infrared, which acts to warm the planet. This could be a measurable effect, or the effect could be so tiny as to be insignificant
Men producing more body heat also warms the planet. Any time you put additional heat into a system, the temperature will rise. This could be a measurable effect, or the effect could be so tiny as to be insignificant
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Models can be created to show that our tiny amount of atmospheric CO2 affects global temperatures. The models are back-checked to fit selected historic records. This does not necessarily give the models any predictive value.
I made a model in my post that shows how a tiny number of women wearing bikinis heats up my hometown. The model was back-checked to fit my selected historic records. This does not necessarily give the model any predictive value.
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Link regarding how CO2 follows temperature:
Paleo Pubs - Icecores, Antarctica, Vostok CO2
