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Old 12-02-2008   #15 (permalink)
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Re: The Economic recover: anyone willing to make a prediction?

Economic recovery--3-8 years
Housing industry recovery-- 2-4 years depending upon location
Auto industry recovery-- 4-5 years. must redesign, retool, get union concessions as to salaries to ever become competitive in the USA again. The
bailout, whatever it is will not be enough. This industry may not survive as it is.
Banks-- more will fail, be aquired, be more regulated--limiting profits
Jobs-- unemployment will increase to 8-12%. Due to lack of education and training, we have a large number of people who may be unemployable.
Government -- will grow to try to handle all the chaos in our institutions and infrastructure. This, along with everything else will drive up taxes and further punish all businesses.

Economies can only function by a fair exchange of value between and among consenting parties. When the balance is skewed by trying to artificially ''even the playing field'', a time of reckoning surely follows. The very people who allowed and encouraged this debacle are now trying to lay the blame at the feet of others instead of admitting their mistakes and correcting the ideas that caused them.

We have elected a group of politicians who have historically elected to throw money at problems rather than make the hard but correct steps to solve the problems. All we can do now is pray they show enough toughness and insight to do the right thing for the country.
There is no good news out there and the worst is yet to come. The Dow fell below 8000 and I would not be surprised to see it at 6000 by next summer. More and more businesses are crying for bailouts and they don't even know how much they need to survive long term.
I hope to Hell I am wrong about this whole scenario.
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