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Old 12-05-2008   #25 (permalink)
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Re: The Economic recover: anyone willing to make a prediction?

No, you're confusing it with the more modern economic concept of Purchasing Power Parity which is what is used by economists to more accurately measure differences in exchange rates based on "the price of a basket of identical traded goods and services."

Currencies are traded based on perceived disequilibriums that occur in individual economies, and this arbitrage actually forces people to keep their currencies in line.

My favorite basket is of course The Economist's Big Mac Index which although originally created as a joke, has proven remarkably accurate in exposing these disequilibriums.

Some countries actually peg their currencies to others (e.g. the Chinese peg the Yuan to the US Dollar), but that results in numerous potential problems and can only be sustained in unusual circumstances (China can do it because of the incredible imbalance of trade it maintains with the rest of the world, especially the US).

But there are no serious efforts to reinstate the gold standard except among some far right wing nativists in a few places around the world. If you'd like to cite any, please do and we can discuss their rationales--or lack thereof.

You'll have to explain a bit more why anything I've posted in this thread has anything to do with free or fair trade: I understand the difference between the two but they have nothing to do with anything I've said here. Each can have an impact on currency valuations, but are irrelevant to the overarching topic at hand.

Sacred cows make the best hamburgers,
Buffy


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