Quote:
Originally Posted by modest
There is no reliable way of knowing real-world changes in future solar irradiance. There is reliable data from 1979-current measuring irradiance by satellite. The model I linked recycles the solar data from 1989-1998.
Also, understand, there is a difference between the instantaneous change in a forcing in the model at any particular resolved spot on the model and the overall impact that has on climate. For example, the 11-year solar cycle does not show up on global surface temperature yearly average graph. The model considers both.
I think what you're trying to say is that climate models do not consider daily changes in solar irradiance *at all*. In other words, the model thinks Greenland in February has the same irradiance as Argentina in August. This is very far from true. Daily changes in irradiance are considered. Models then consider how that change interacts with changing clouds and ozone and a hundred other things for each interval of time at each interval of space.
Is this not your understanding?
~modest
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Hehe no, that is not what I am attempting to get across at all.
Based on data from NASA's Goddard institute, the sun is currently putting out more energy than it has in the past 2000 years. In the year 2000, the last year I can find NASA Goddard data, the earth was receiving daily solar irradiance of 1367.5 W/m2. In 1800, the sun was sending us 1365.5 W/m2, and the amount of energy reaching earth steadily increased over the next 200 years to our current extremely high amounts of sunlight.
A link to charts showing this information is here, on page 24 of the document:
http://www.yale.edu/yibs/Solar%20Var...r_Shindell.pdf
This is the information that is not reflected in the climate models - the fact that we are simply getting more energy sent to the surface of our planet than ever before. The NASA Goddard climate models talk of "solar forcings" and such. I am not a climate modeler, and I have no way to decipher the code that NASA used for their models, and there seems to be varying opinions of exactly what a "forcing" is.
But I can look at their inputs. And I cannot find anywhere that NASA Goddard models are taking into account the fact that the sun is brighter than ever before in recorded history.
Can you find anything about this?
