Science Forums 2

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by mynah

In several years, the avian flu outbreak that has mainly been claiming victims in Asia has reached phase 3, which is the earliest phase of the pandemic warning period. In a few weeks the swine flu outbreak that started in Mexico has gone to phase 5, the last of the pandemic warning period. Just how serious is this disease going to be? (If it is any consolation, it does not appear to have as high a mortality rate as avian flu - although no-one seems to know just what the mortality rate is.)

No ; there is a phase 6. The idea that this is some sort of scare-tactic or political maneuvering is ridiculus beyond the pale. (get it; pale? ) Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

CDC - Influenza (Flu) | Pandemic Influenza: Phases

Stages of a Pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a global influenza preparedness plan, which defines the stages of a pandemic, outlines the role of WHO, and makes recommendations for national measures before and during a pandemic. The phases are:

Interpandemic period
Phase 1 : No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.

Phase 2: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.

Pandemic alert period
Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period
Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.