Quote:
Originally Posted by dannieyankee
I agree with most of it, though maybe not QUITE as harshly, except that last sentence. Assume the following statistics: The population is one billion. 5% of the population is homosexual. That leaves 950,000,000. Assume the population is roughly 50% male, 50% female. Also assume that 80% of the heterosexual population will have children. 50% of that will have the maximum (2) children. So 190,000,000 couples will have one child, and 190,000,000 will have two. That will equate to 570,000,000 children born, on top of 380,000,000 parents, 190,000,000 people that did not have children, and 50,000,000 homosexuals who do not have children (by the way, assume 10% of homosexuals use vitro, which adds 5,000,000 children to the world.) In total, the population will be at 1,755,000,000 the following year, assuming the death rate to be at approximately 10% a year. Now, find the percentage increase and keep multiplying it.
At one billion, restrictions may still be necessary. The only difference is that right now, it is IMPENDINGLY necessary.
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Dannieyankee, I think you've got the cat by the tail, so to speak.
Yes, a population of a billion might have, let's say, 100,000,000 couples interested in having kids (the rest of the population is too old, too young, or already up to their 1-kid limit). That'll bring the population to 1,100,000,000. But it seems as if you're calculating as if the very same people will have kids
every year.
It's a simple exercise: A kid's got a father and a mother. There are two people involved in creating a child. Now, if those same two people were to create
two children, then they would replace the mother and the father after their respective deaths, resulting in a 0% population growth. This is, of course, ignoring such things like extramarital sex, but any offspring from those kleptogamic encounters will be made impossible via enforced vasectomies. Now, it should be abundantly clear that if a 1-child policy were to be strictly enforced world-wide, the global population
must come down - because the new generation is now only replacing
one of the parents.
The biggest problem lies in convincing the global population to the benefits of such a scheme - and how to enforce it.
