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I think AI will be here in 5 years, at least to the level of no more call centers or human share dealers
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I agree, we’re pretty close or perhaps already there now. Reasonable good limited Turing test-capable programs were running on OTS hardware 10 years ago, and with the current state of voice recognition and synthesizing a computer “matching the intellectual performance of a human being” doing mind-numbingly repetitive tasks like call center work.
What Moravec is describing, though, is akin to an
unlimited Turing test-capable machine, with general reasoning skills equal or superior to a normal human being. His argument, which he bases on some pretty impressive comparisons of computer programs an animal neurology, and which Pearson draws from, is that practical computer hardware is currently about 100 times too slow to fully emulate human thought.
The real barrier to achieving either Moravec or Pearson’s vision is, I believe, our inability to image the functioning human (or animal) brain in high enough detail to
copy it into a computerized simulation without understanding well what it is doing, or
understand what it is doing well enough to create a similar computer program.
Although I disagree with them, some very bright folk, such as Roger Penrose, argue that the necessary detail may never be achievable.
