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Originally Posted by C1ay
Some prominent dates from his analysis include the following:
* We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023.
* We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037.
* We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2049.
* We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the year 2059.
Something to think about....
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Or just de-bunk. Once you reach the stage of having a human level AI for one cent (!) or even $1000 the entire concept of money is outdated, almost overnight.
How do we all earn money these days? I do some manual work, but mostly, it is via thought and creativity, isn't it? Hence, once I have 20 machines that are as smart as me, yet 100 times faster, I will be able to design 10000 web pages an hour in my sleep, for a near-zero cost (after capital investment). But I can't get rich, since so can everyone else. And if I offer my services for 1 penny a page, there will still be lots of people doing it for free!
At this stage, money is worth nothing any more, for any job that doesn't involve manipulation of actual things. Those jobs that do involve moving things, they will fall as soon as a robot is mass-produced to do that job (or, indeed, almost any job)
People with the money will be able to build an army (or anything they wish), while those without will have to bootstrap, by having the one AI play games to get more, then use that to build one fabricator, then two fabricators, etc.
Accelerando by Charles Stross deals with this scenario, with the fate of humanity being rather bleak. Sadly, I can't fault a lot of what he says. It's a free novel, and worth a read. 7/10 for the story, 9/10 for the technical future content.
But what will this mean for the great unwashed masses? The people who demand wide screen TVs for pushing out babies at tax payers expense? They aren't even fit for cannon fodder now, let alone once Terminator style robots are running around the place!
