Still no sunspots...

[Moontanman]

Maybe the sun is holding back and will really kick our ass with a series of huge flares in a few months or years. Maybe the sun is going to become unstable, maybe the sun is going to freeze and we will have to go to the sun and drop a huge bomb into it to start it back up no wait that's another movie

[REASON]

Since the equator of the Sun rotates faster than the poles, the magnetic field lines become twisted and tangled over the 11 year cycle in which the polarity of the poles ultimately reverses. The entanglements of the magnetic field lines, or fluxons, is a factor in the development of sunspots, flares, prominences, and coronal mass ejections.

It appears we are at the beginning of a new 11 year cycle when the magnetic field lines are not so tangled.

Should we really be surprised by the lack of sunspots during this period?

I know the article mentions that this period of inactivity is longer than usual, but I didn't catch where it said how much longer. Does anyone know about that?

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by REASON

...It appears we are at the beginning of a new 11 year cycle when the magnetic field lines are not so tangled.

Should we really be surprised by the lack of sunspots during this period?

I know the article mentions that this period of inactivity is longer than usual, but I didn't catch where it said how much longer. Does anyone know about that?

Originally Posted by NASA

...What's going on? Hathaway explains: "We have two solar cycles in progress at the same time. Solar Cycle 24 has begun (the first new-cycle spot appeared in January 2008), but Solar Cycle 23 has not ended."

Strange as it sounds, this is perfectly normal. Around the time of solar minimum--i.e., now--old-cycle spots and new-cycle spots frequently intermingle. Eventually Cycle 23 will fade to zero, giving way in full to Solar Cycle 24, but not yet.

NASA - Old Solar Cycle Returns

What might be unusual, is that if sunspot numbers remain below the predicted rise, and/or they continue to have the magnetic orientation of cycle 23. There just so happens to have emerged a new sunspot today, and we will have to see its magnetic orientation to see if it belongs to cycle #23 or the new #24. On the left limb of the Sun: >> SOHO MDI Continuum Latest Image

[Turtle]

SpaceWeather.com often features images of the Sun & its activity from amateurs. The sunspot that appeared yesterday, gave off a flare today & an amateur captured it.
New AR - flares!!

I went looking at SpaceWeather for some of the past stories I read there on solar minimum & sunspots, but as far as I have found, it's not well indexed to find by subject. If you know the date, you can put that in & bring up the stories from that day, but otherwise, not so much.

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

PS Here is the thread on solar activity that I earlier alluded to: >> http://hypography.com/forums/space/1...ike-watch.html

[Overdog]

Originally Posted by Turtle

NASA - Old Solar Cycle Returns
There just so happens to have emerged a new sunspot today, and we will have to see its magnetic orientation to see if it belongs to cycle #23 or the new #24. On the left limb of the Sun: >> SOHO MDI Continuum Latest Image

My understanding is the new cycle spots always start in the higher latitudes (or lower) away from the equator, while ending cycle spots appear on or near the equator, so this one still looks like the old cycle.

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by Overdog

My understanding is the new cycle spots always start in the higher latitudes (or lower) away from the equator, while ending cycle spots appear on or near the equator, so this one still looks like the old cycle.

Acknowledged on that clarification. This circumstance is reflected in the so called 'Butterfly' graphs: >> NASA/Marshall Solar Physics

[modest]

Originally Posted by Turtle

This circumstance is reflected in the so called 'Butterfly' graphs: >> NASA/Marshall Solar Physics

Wow. You could set your watch by that. I had no idea the cycle was so regular - fascinating.

[REASON]

Originally Posted by modest

Wow. You could set your watch by that. I had no idea the cycle was so regular - fascinating.

Yes, I agree, modest.

I also wonder if the lesser amount of sunspots on the charts from 1880 to 1940 are actually indicative of less sunspots, or the technological ability to detect them.

Any ideas on that?

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by REASON

I also wonder if the lesser amount of sunspots on the charts from 1880 to 1940 are actually indicative of less sunspots, or the technological ability to detect them.

Any ideas on that?

First, sorry for the huge butterfly! I have the darndest time inserting images. To the question of accuracy for the period you noted, adjacent to the Butterfly diagram is this descriptive text:

Originally Posted by NASA

...Detailed observations of sunspots have been obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory since 1874. These observations include information on the sizes and positions of sunspots as well as their numbers. These data show that sunspots do not appear at random over the surface of the sun but are concentrated in two latitude bands on either side of the equator. ...

Of the earlier periods back to Galileo, this is given:

Originally Posted by NASA

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented.

NASA/Marshall Solar Physics

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by modest

Wow. You could set your watch by that. I had no idea the cycle was so regular - fascinating.

Or, is that an illusion of scale scope?

...Even the "normal" 11-year cycle seems to have longer-term behavior. Different cycles have different strengths, with some of them showing more sunspot activity than others. The strengths of the cycle peaks seem to follow a roughly 80-year period of very strong cycles, slightly weaker ones, then back to stronger ones, and so forth. With detailed sunspot records extending only a few hundred years, it is difficult to confirm or disprove this hypothesis. Combined with evidence for multiple periods of nearly complete inactivity, it becomes impossible to say whether the solar activity cycle, so extensively studied in the last 30 years, is normality or an aberration. ...

Maunder Minimum