[charles brough]

....because no one wants to offend the Religious Right! Marxist China seems to be the only place on Earth that grasps the problem and does something about it.

Are we failing to face what is really causing our environmental and pollution problems because we hate to admit that their truly defective system still has
SOMETHING right?

It is a big mistake to think that science and technology will enable us to keep on growing in numbers without ending in an immense population crash. What is happening is that the growth of religiouness in our society and, indeed, in others as well, is cutting down science. Religious reaction is growing and has been for the last some 40 years. Even the periodic liberal phases of this cyclical down-trend are characterized by being always LESS liberal than the last such cycle.

A good source of info on this is the Atheistic Science Institute - home page* *

charles

[Pyrotex]

You ask an excellent question. One that has been basically ignored since the publication of "The Population Bomb" back in the sixties.

I believe the reason no one wants to ask it publically, let alone deal with it, is that it has only two solutions (that I can think of):

1. You impose tyrannical reproduction constraints upon everyone (like China has attempted). This is pretty much guaranteed to outrage almost everybody, and probably trigger mass uprisings and revolts that you will have to put down by brutal force and the imposition of a police state. (Luckily, China already had a police state. )

2. You let the Bomb explode -- which it must, eventually. This will result in mass starvation and disease, and probably lots of really ugly wars; a time which I call the "Great Die Off". But at least there won't be any "authority" to blame. If the "Great Die Off" is only bad enough to kill off less than, say, 5% of the population, then you are faced with an unending series of "Great Die Offs", about one every 25 years.

The FUTURE -- Either live it or live with it.

[Nitack]

I believe there is another outcome that has not been put forth.

Remember, that as level of education and standard of living rises, the children per family generally falls. Individuals who do not expect a high child mortality rate and do not believe that children are a retirement plan will naturally have fewer children in order to concentrate their resources on the fewer that they have. Both India and China have rapidly improving standards of living. It can be expected (already the case for china) that birth rates will dramatically drop in those countries over the next generation or two. When you take over 2 Billion people out of the equation of exponential reproduction the predictions on the rate of overpopulation get much less steep. The standard of living is rising in both Latin America and in Asia. Once it reaches the tipping point we will actually see the world population start to decrease I think.

The major question mark is Africa. The continent as a whole is in shambles and it appears that it will continue that way for quite a while. Africa has plenty of resources to become economically powerful, but does not have certain resources (oil, except in a few places) that would make more developed powers impose order as has been done in the Middle East. The frank truth is that birth rates there will continue to be high because the standard of living will not go up as the political turmoil there continues. Individuals have a very high expectation of them, or their children dying from war, famine, AIDS, or other disease, and the rest of the world does not care enough to do anything about it just for the sake of humanity.

Africa aside. I think the population bomb will actually slowly snuff itself out. The truth threat will not be food riots due to overpopulation beyond what the earth can support. Rather, the true threat lies in energy wars. It is highly unlikely that any combination of renewable energy will be able to ween us off fossil fuels in the next thirty to forty years. We will fight over oil and possibly over natural gas.

[Pyrotex]

Let's hope you're right.

But remember, the Pop Bomb can be triggered by running out of: food, clean water, energy, strategic resources (for example, copper, manganese, platinum...), breathable air...

[Kayra]

Nitack nailed it I think.

There is no solution required because there is no over-population crisis. We are capable of sustaining our current population growth through to 2050 using only current arable land and technologies.

Rate of growth issues are resolving themselves as standards of living and contraception are made available.

The major possible failure in this future would be the widescale acceptance of religious fundamentalism that would disallow any form of contraception.

If this is the case it would be a self fullfilling prophesy of doom brought to us by gods.

(I do hope the irony is showing there.)

[charles brough]

Nitack says that as humanity grows wealthier, people have fewer children. That is certainly true and world population would begin to level off.

But it seems that only a small part of the world is getting wealthier. Even in China, it is only the urbane population that has few children. Most people in India, Indonesia, China and in Latin America as well as AFrica are having large families. Some have nine to twelve or more children.

Then, also, the economic crisis can very easily eliminate much of the economic gain in the last few decades. And every year, we use up more resources and add more pollution.

Kayra has a solution. Science just keeps progressing so that technology enables us to keep up improvising and developing better ways of reaching harder to get resources and finding substitutes.

My observation, however, is that Religious Reaction and science do not mix. The more one becomes militantly Old Religion, the less science. After all, they are not compatible! One is always at the expense of the other. And Religious Reaction has been increasing for the last 40 years. It is just a matter of time before creationism goes in and evolution goes out. That is the trend, and there is good reason for it. . . cause and effect. People are desperately falling back on it because our secular system is weakening. We only give lip service to our secular ideals and easily give them all up when we feel threatened.

charles
. (see: the Atheistic Science Institute - home page )

[Nitack]

Originally Posted by charles brough

But it seems that only a small part of the world is getting wealthier. Even in China, it is only the urbane population that has few children. Most people in India, Indonesia, China and in Latin America as well as AFrica are having large families. Some have nine to twelve or more children.

Your observation of China is no different than what happened in the US for the first half of the last Century. Initially it was only in the cities that we saw standards of living raise across the board. In rural communities poverty, any large families by necessity, remained very common. As you can see now, even in the most rural areas of the US, you have a standard of living higher than most metropolitan areas of Latin America, Africa, and developing Asia.

Additionally, as borders start to erode more and more to the point of simply being a line on a map, we will see a general standard of living spread. The EU is the first example of that sort of system. Despite their relatively high standard of living before the EU, multiple countries gave up part of their sovereignty in order to form a more stable and more powerful union. I can see that happening eventually, Latin America especially where most people share the same language, rather unique in the world to have so many different countries sharing the same official language. It will require the ousting of chuckle heads like Hugo Chavez first, but it will happen.

[Racoon]

I've done a bit of sociological study on Human Overpopulation.

I feel its the greatest threat to the planet.
We may be able to sustain ~10 Billion people... (currently at about 6.5-7 B)
BUT we fail to consider the devistation on all other species.
Soon there will be little fish or game left.
Plants die off, and trees cut.
The Sahara desert grows. Usable water diminishes.

Use the Rats in a Cage scenario. The more rats in a space increase fueds and pollute the cage.

Its all very simple.
Just look at the environment.

If humans keep reproducing exponentially, then eventually Nature will take care of the problem.

Either by Super-Virus
Or we Kill Ourselves off in competition for remaining resources and exploitation.

AIDS is a good start on human population reduction.

Yes, of course, the solution resides in the education of women.
Educated women have fewer children, and those children are usually better off.
But it ain't happenin'.

[charles brough]

Originally Posted by Racoon

Use the Rats in a Cage scenario. The more rats in a space increase fueds and pollute the cage.

Yes, that's what happens. It is even worse. Rats and mice over-crowding ends in a dramatic change in behavior. There develops a behavioral breakdown. Gangs of mice invade family warrens, some of the rats become trance like. Other gangs pick on each other and rape. They sink into what has been called "a behavioral sink."

As we crowd each other for diminishing resources, we also are beginning to exhibit behavioral deterioration not only within our societies but also between them and between nations.

charles
the Atheistic Science Institute - home page* *

[Pyrotex]

You know, mankind has this wonderful, adorable trait which I call, Egyptian River Mentality. This trait is simply that mankind cannot believe in and cannot even worry about a natural disaster that has not occurred in a long, long time--if ever.

We don't worry about black holes slamming into our Sun.
We don't worry about giant comets slamming into the Earth. (well, not much)
We don't worry about mutant army ants eating all other animals on Earth.
We don't worry about mutant viruses killing half of mankind. (maybe we should)
And we definately don't worry about having so many humans on Earth that we kill all the other animals and pollute ourselves into near-extinction.

Hey, it's never happened before!
What're the odds????

Egyptian River Mentality. Living in Denial.