OK So Now "What is the rest of the story"
I wanted to take a minute to close the discussion out if we want to. It is a lot of work keeping this going and I have another main focus.
As you can see from my last post I have a set of beliefs about what is happening on the land on a large scale. We can talk examples for ever. There are many cases which demonstrate almost any case. In the many millions of acres of wildlands in this country a lot of things happening good and bad if humans are involved or not.
So the real work I do is to try to work with people to get the big answers. In fact the actual number of acres in any condition is never well know. So the big question is are thing getting better or worse depending on what we judge to be defined as better or worse. For example the area I described in the last post that was reburned seems bad to me but to some species it might be good. Those species might find a great habitat and some rare species could do better than ever there. The same could be true for failed clear cuts we talked about earlier. The fact is we just don't know. But as long as there is a lot of diversity it may well be OK
So the question is how much of the land is covered with any specific habitat or condition and are important conditions missing or in very short supply. For example we know most of us think there is not enough old growth. But how do we know.
The project I run that works across the land management agencies first works to develop detailed or fine scale vegetation maps and attempts to quantify just how accurate they are. This is done by expanding the sampling data that we collect into detailed landscape data we can use to answer these kinds of questions. This is a very difficult process because we can't just go out and sample each place on the landscape with all the acres these agencies have responsibility to manage.
I'm lucky to get to work with real smart people from places like Los Alamos National Lab, MIT, Texas A&M and many others in management and research to develop the methods that will help us develop and easily maintain these fine scale vegetation maps. We can then look at what is on the landscape and define my view of say old growth and test to see how much there is under that definition. Then someone else can do the same and we can then find out how much there is under that definition. This is done with a method of spreading these sample around using big statistical programs with a relationship to landsat images.
There are landsat images that are as much as 40 years old I believe. So when we have this method well tested and defined we could run the same kind of questions against conditions 40 years ago and see how much it has changed.
You can read more about this at our website
Informs Software
So the exciting thing about this is if I can't change what is going on out there on the landscape. We can and will disagree on what it good or bad or what example is the proof of our point.
But if we can all start from a common basic example of what is really there on the land. We have a chance to at least have our discussions from a point of real information. If I can't affect the land directly as I used to, at least I can possibly leave a legacy of knowing what is on the land.
We have a lot of work to do to get this right but we are lots smarter than we were a few years ago. With continued work and in a few years we hope to be able to keep up to date maps of all the lands managed by federal land mangers and make it available to anybody who wants to know.
Thanks for the discussion it has been fun.
Taildragerdriver