The Economic recover: anyone willing to make a prediction?

[charles brough]

It would be enlightening to make a prediction in public, then check back later and see how it was shaping up in the real world.

Is anyone willing to make prediction of where the economy will go from here---and when?

If so, let's make our predictions and then, when we've finished, save the link (its under "tools" and then "page info") on our "bookmark" or "favorites" so we can check back in 6 to 12 months and see who has done the best.

Where the fun comes in is that people tend to have no idea what the economy will do, but when it turns around, they have marvelous hind-sight and are convinced they know it was going to turn around then ahead of time.
If we have it down and saved, we all avoid rationalizing. This alone will discourage some from making a prediction . . .

Here is my prediction:

"I believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the area of its lows between 8000 & 9.500. I believe the stock prices will go up steadily from this level soon, but that the general economic conditions will continue to deteriorate for the next approximate six months as the government spends money to reverse the trend. In the Spring, I believe commodity prices will start rising and, into the summer, business will start improving. I think the shortness of the downturn and the pace of the recovery will surprise everyone. Home prices will be rising and the mortgage crisis will be over. All the new money plowed into the economy to reverse the downtrend will, however, cause an accompanying increase in prices---so much so that we have hyperinflation."

As you all know, I could be very wrong on each count. So, lets see what we can come up with.

[Overdog]

I predict that by accepting the notion that a Corporation is too big to fail, the American people will one day wake up and find that they can no longer distinguish between Government and Corporation.

[Chiantiglace]

Originally Posted by Overdog

I predict that by accepting the notion that a Corporation is too big to fail, the American people will one day wake up and find that they can no longer distinguish between Government and Corporation.

Add Union to that mix.

They might all be fighting each other, and at a distance they seem to be different, but the truth is all three of them are doing everything in there power to destroy middle class.

[LaurieAG]

Originally Posted by charles brough

Is anyone willing to make prediction of where the economy will go from here---and when?

Hi Charles,

Considering that the G20 just announced that they would make the global financial system more transparent, among other things, why do I find it very strange that Fox Business, Bloomberg and CNBC on cable all refer to the DJIA instead of the DOW that they have been quoting for the past couple of years????

The last time I saw the plain DOW it was around 200-250 points below the DJIA, and that was only a couple of days ago.

The real value of the DOW should actually be about 5000 if you continue the growth rate from between 1987 and 1993 and project it towards 2008.

There's one way to tell if the G20 politicians are lying, check out Australias 'comedy hour' (commonly called question time by Australian politicians), if our politicians give up their childish avoidance of public scrutiny and responsibility in the next sessions of the 'comedy hour' then their might be a chance that they're telling the truth, unfortunately they cannot help themselves so I doubt it.

[charles brough]

Originally Posted by LaurieAG

Hi Charles,
The last time I saw the plain DOW it was around 200-250 points below the DJIA, and that was only a couple of days ago.

I really don't know what you are talking about. At least here in the U.S., the Dow and the DJIA are one and the same thing. Even looking in Google indicates nothing but that.

charles

[Moontanman]

Originally Posted by Chiantiglace

Add Union to that mix.

They might all be fighting each other, and at a distance they seem to be different, but the truth is all three of them are doing everything in there power to destroy middle class.

Sadly i find I cannot argue that point. I do think that things will get worse before they begin to pick up and many will not get back to where they were before this crisis. I don't think we will see wide spread soup lines like in the great depression early in the last century but the middle and lower class are going to suffer in this one for sure. BTW can anyone define what it means to be i the middle class and or lower or higher class? I keep getting confused by where I sit in this system of classification.

[clapstyx]

I'm prepared to make a prediction that there will be a global currency meltdown within 12 months which will cause virtually all manufacturing in every country to cease. There are a several factors driving in concert to this conclusion which as they come into unison will cause an acceleration. We know already that the lifestyle promoted by commerce is super negative to the ecosystem and there is no way of avoiding a realisational crunch time. That process has been held back massively by the media and the disparity between the level of thinking they portray as normal and the actual public depth of thinking (vis a vis realisation acceleration speed). The impact on the level of economy of resource conversion into saleable commododity is going to happen when that disparity reaches a point where the two versions of reality become so mismatched that there will be an unsettling collision of greater consciousness where the only way out of it w

[LaurieAG]

Originally Posted by charles brough

I really don't know what you are talking about. At least here in the U.S., the Dow and the DJIA are one and the same thing. Even looking in Google indicates nothing but that.

Hi Charles,

It looks like the Australian cable guys all had the same 'problem' with their data feeds.

It also looks like a Gold Standard is the only way to fix the global financial system. With oil down to nearly 1/3 of what it was a couple of months ago, somebody, especially our democratically elected politicians, should be responsible for protecting us from the blatant gougers.

[charles brough]

Originally Posted by LaurieAG

Hi Charles,
It also looks like a Gold Standard is the only way to fix the global financial system. With oil down to nearly 1/3 of what it was a couple of months ago, somebody, especially our democratically elected politicians, should be responsible for protecting us from the blatant gougers.

But I sense you are not real predicting we will re-establish the gold standard, are you?

[Southtown]

Originally Posted by Overdog

I predict that by accepting the notion that a Corporation is too big to fail, the American people will one day wake up and find that they can no longer distinguish between Government and Corporation.

People? You think the people have anything to do with those decisions?