My belief in Global Warming is getting shaky

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by Essay

Sorry I'm such an idiot. No wonder nobody....
Here is the link:
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publi...i-etal2002.pdf

-from: Beltrami, H., J. E. Smerdon, H. N. Pollack, and S. Huang (2002), Continental heat gain in the global climate system, Geophysical Research Letters., 29(8), 1167, doi:10.1029/2001GL014310

...and WOW InfiniteNow, --great Graph. The turquoise "borehole" line shows what this paper indicates. ...Thanks....

How embarrassing. Probably better not to mention it again...the skeptic's link you accidentally posted, that is... better not mention that one again. This one >> Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group News Shhhh!

On your 'real' link, I don't find anything on the deep ocean temperature variance, or an indication of how it affects the upper layer temperatures. I see a lot of boreholes on the map too; how long have we been drilling those & how is temperature data derived from them?

[InfiniteNow]

Originally Posted by Turtle

How embarrassing. Probably better not to mention it again...the skeptic's link you accidentally posted, that is... better not mention that one again. This one >> Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group News Shhhh!

On your 'real' link, I don't find anything on the deep ocean temperature variance, or an indication of how it affects the upper layer temperatures. I see a lot of boreholes on the map too; how long have we been drilling those & how is temperature data derived from them?

If you're the one insinuating doubt or error in the data, then truly the onus falls on you to answer your own questions. The rest of us accept the data as accurate.

Btw... Ole' Rog is an interesting fellar.

I have encountered his name before in another GW debate thread where he said the following in conclusion to a link I provided:

Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group News » NOAA Cover Up Of US Historical Climate Network Surface Station Photographs

This is clearly a procedure to avoid making these photographs available. Indeed, in the papers that have been published with photographs of these HCN sites, care was taken to not publish the address or name of the observer.

<...>

The new NOAA policy is a deliberate attempt to avoid presenting this information for scrutiny.

The references, IMO, don't warrant that conclusion, and I am inclined to agree with and accept the response Roger Pielke Sr received via email from NOAA which stated the following:

Originally Posted by Email from NOAA to Roger Pielke, Sr.

The policy is an attempt to protect volounteers from harrassment by the kind of conspiracy nuts that Surface Stations is likely to inspire.

There's also this (fancy that... he's a political scientist, not a climatologist):

Roger Pielke Jr - SourceWatch.

During congressional hearings on political interference with government scientists by members of the Bush Administration, Pielke testified that Bush's actions are not different from prior administrations. It was later revealed that his testimony had been sought by Republicans on the committee.

<...>

Pielke is regularly cited by conservative activists to undercut the science on global warming and policies that might mitigate climate change.

<...>

A study he published in the journal Proceedings of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society contains numerous references that were not peer-reviewed.

The main citation for the paper is a study that Pielke published in the skeptic journal Energy and Environment which not carried in the ISI listing of peer-reviewed journals. A review of the paper finds that Pielke cites the Energy and Environment study four different times in his latest paper.

<...>

At the 2007 Fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Pielke Jr. gave a joint presentation on hurricanes and climate change with global warming skeptic Stephen McIntyre.

McIntyre's is another name favored by skeptics and thoroughly debunked by experts in the field. However, to his credit, he did find an error in a data point regarding temperature in the early 20th century and he contacted NASA to have it corrected. The rest of his work, unfortunately, is wrought with falsehoods and misrepresentations.

[Turtle]

Something on ocean temperature variance by depth, and a project underway to correct some of the deficiencies in the models.

Originally Posted by Argo

...Why do we need Argo?

We are increasingly concerned about global change and its regional impacts. Sea level is rising at an accelerating rate of 3 mm/year, Arctic sea ice cover is shrinking and high latitude areas are warming rapidly. Extreme weather events cause loss of life and enormous burdens on the insurance industry. Globally, 8 of the 10 warmest years since 1860, when instrumental records began, were in the past decade.
These effects are caused by a mixture of long-term climate change and natural variability. Their impacts are in some cases beneficial (lengthened growing seasons, opening of Arctic shipping routes) and in others adverse (increased coastal flooding, severe droughts, more extreme and frequent heat waves and weather events such as severe tropical cyclones).

Understanding (and eventually predicting) changes in both the atmosphere and ocean are needed to guide international actions, to optimize governments’ policies and to shape industrial strategies. To make those predictions we need improved models of climate and of the entire earth system (including socio-economic factors).

Lack of sustained observations of the atmosphere, oceans and land have hindered the development and validation of climate models. An example comes from a recent analysis which concluded that the currents transporting heat northwards in the Atlantic and influencing western European climate had weakened by 30% in the past decade. This result had to be based on just five research measurements spread over 40 years. Was this change part of a trend that might lead to a major change in the Atlantic circulation, or due to natural variability that will reverse in the future, or is it an artifact of the limited observations? ...

Argo - part of the integrated global observation strategy

Post Script: Essay, you may not have seen this information, which received a critical review largely focussed on the writing style, and not critically contending the facts revealed by the mud-core research off British Columbia. Note the multiple sun cycles involved beyond the Schwabe. Also, did I see you say some part of an ocean is getting colder?


Read the sunspots

posts #55 to #64 >> http://hypography.com/forums/environ...worried-6.html

[InfiniteNow]

Originally Posted by Turtle

Something on ocean temperature variance by depth, and a project underway to correct some of the deficiencies in the models.

Huh?

Specifically, which model(s)?
Specifically, which deficiencies?
Once you've addressed that, what is the quantitative impact of those deficiencies on the conclusions?
Once you've addressed that, how does it counter the conclusions of the other models which do not suffer from those deficiencies?


Science is not generally done in sign language, yet you continue doing little more than hand waving.

[Essay]

Originally Posted by Turtle

On your 'real' link, I don't find anything on the deep ocean temperature variance, or an indication of how it affects the upper layer temperatures. I see a lot of boreholes on the map too; how long have we been drilling those & how is temperature data derived from them?

Deep ocean temperatures? Huh? The title is "Continental heat gain...."

I suspect a lot of the boreholes were done for geological sampling and research reasons.
...and I've been trying to imagine how they "measure" temperature in a profile like that. I can think of many confounding factors (and I'm not even a geologist). I trust that the methods have been vetted, but I think there is (as always) room for improvement.
If you're curious:

http://www.geo.lsa.umich.edu/~shaopeng/huang.pdf
letters to nature [w/borehole map]

http://www.geo.lsa.umich.edu/~shaopeng/2006EO440003.pdf
Land Warming as Part of Global Warming [Eos, Vol. 87, No. 44, 31 October 2006]

http://soil.scijournals.org/cgi/reprint/70/4/1281.pdf
Characterizing the Two-Dimensional Thermal Conductivity Distribution in a Sand and Gravel Aquifer

Victor Bense at the University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences
Borehole Paleoclimatology
Inversion of geothermal data for paleoclimate reconstructions has recently received increased attention because it potentially provides a means of estimating the amount of heat being stored in the Earth's continents. However, the use of geothermal data can be hampered because of the impact of land-use changes and fluid flow on heat flow patterns in the subsurface. In collaboration with H. Beltrami (St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova Scotia, Canada) I have recently been working on methodologies to correct for these effects based upon numerical modeling of subsurface heat transport.
Bense, V., and H. Beltrami (2007), Impact of horizontal groundwater flow and localized deforestation on the development of shallow temperature anomalies, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F04015, doi:10.1029/2006JF000703.

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstr...BF00878843.pdf
Inference of Ground Surface Temperature History from Subsurface Temperature Data: Interpreting Ensembles of Borehole Logs [PAGEOPH, Vol. 147, No. 3 (1996)]

I don't think these boreholes were drilled just to gather temp. data; they're just taking advantage of convenient circumstances.
They're even taking advantage of old lunar measurements to glean some climate info.

"Indeed, the long-term lunar surface temperature time series obtained inadvertently by the Heat Flow Experiment at the Apollo 15 landing site three decades ago may be the first important observation from deep space of both incoming and outgoing radiation of the terrestrial climate system. A revisit of the lunar surface temperature time series reveals distinct characteristics in lunar surface daytime and nighttime temperature variations, governed respectively by solar and terrestrial radiation."

http://www.geo.lsa.umich.edu/~shaopeng/Huang07ASR.pdf
Surface temperatures at the nearside of the Moon as a record of the radiation budget of Earth’s climate system Please cite this article in press as: Huang, S., Surface temperatures at the nearside of the Moon as a ..., J. Adv. Space Res. (2007), doi:10.1016/j.asr.2007.04.093
This study shows that the Moon is a plausible platform for monitoring the terrestrial climate system, and lunar surface temperature data comprise information on the radiation budget of Earth. The author calls for international effort to develop a network of temperature and radiation observatories on the Moon for the study of terrestrial climate change.


p.s. Thanks for the Argo p.s.
...will see....

[InfiniteNow]

Originally Posted by Turtle

Post Script: Essay, you may not have seen this information, which received a critical review largely focussed on the writing style, and not critically contending the facts revealed by the mud-core research off British Columbia. Note the multiple sun cycles involved beyond the Schwabe

<yawn>




This is SO six pages ago...

http://hypography.com/forums/environ...tml#post213998


Let the hand waving begin...erm... I mean, continue... erm... I mean, <removed>.

[Essay]

Originally Posted by Turtle

...and not critically contending the facts revealed by the mud-core research off British Columbia. Note the multiple sun cycles involved beyond the Schwabe.
...Also, did I see you say some part of an ocean is getting colder?

I might have been talking about how there is a lot of variability, but I don't think .... oh, well.... there is all the melting ice to think about.
Not really a net cooling; just a redistribution.

The last line of that Patterson, Mud/Sun article:
"By comparison, CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales."

...doesn't point out that never before has a species generated so much CO2, nor destroyed so much of the biome's ability to sequester CO2.

Sure the sun's signature can be seen. It always can be seen, superimposed over whatever other climate forcers are operating at the time.
It's just that at THIS time, CO2 buildup is a new forcer (compared to how it operated in the past).

fyi....
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
Volume 226, Issues 1-2, 3 October 2005, Pages 72-92
Climate shift at 4400 years BP: Evidence from high-resolution diatom stratigraphy, Effingham Inlet, British Columbia, Canada
Alice S. Chang, and R. Timothy Patterson

4. Methods and materials
Piston core TUL99B03 (49° 04.275′ N, 125° 09.359′ W; 11.4 m long, 10 cm diameter; 120 m water depth) was recovered from the inner basin of Effingham Inlet in 1999 (Fig. 1C). The majority of the core contains visibly distinct sedimentary laminae, with thin (< 10 cm) nonlaminated intervals intercalated throughout the core.
...
A 15-cm long slab (called Slab 8) from core depth 870–885 cm was extracted for high-resolution stratigraphic analysis because its distinct laminae and varves which show a thinning upward sequence. The slab has been previously X-rayed to reveal its internal structures and bulk density variations.
...
A 5-mm wide sediment strip was sliced perpendicular to laminae along the edge of Slab 8 and embedded with Spurr low-viscosity epoxy resin for the production of a continuous set of thin sections. ....During the embedding process, the top 1.3 cm of the sediment strip was damaged and discarded. The successfully embedded sediments were cured, sectioned diagonally into approximately 3-cm long pieces with a bandsaw, and polished into thin section slides.

6.4. Climatic interpretations (Aleutian Low (AL) & North Pacific High (NPH) )
The evidence provided in Slab 8 suggests that above varve 26, where varves become more silty and the abundance of marine coastal diatom taxa decreases, the AL gradually strengthened or persisted for a longer interval during the year. Alternatively, the NPH may have become weaker or did not move as far north during the summer to initiate upwelling along the British Columbia coast. A combination of both of these factors may also compound the situation. An examination of the sediments immediately below Slab 8 indicates that the sediments in Slab 8 record a transitional period from a time of high seasonality to a time of low seasonality. Varves from at least 17 cm of sediment (60 years) below Slab 8 are thick (2–3 mm) and display distinct seasonal lamina components (Chang et al., 2003 and Chang, 2004). Therefore it appears that there were at least some 80 years of drier, high seasonality conditions before the wetter, low seasonality conditions set in, and that the climate shift occurred within a couple of decades.

Recent research suggests that the changing intensities and locations of the AL and NPH may reflect a higher-order forcing factor. Christoforou and Hameed (1997) and Hameed and Lee (2003) have observed that the positions of the AL and NPH are related to solar activity, namely the 11-year Schwabe sunspot cycle. They determined that during sunspot maxima, the AL system moves west by as much as 700 km while the NPH moves north by as much as 300 km. These systems move in the opposite way during sunspot minima. Other longer cycles, such as the 20–22-year Hale cycle and the 72–90-year Gleissberg cycle (Dean, 2000), both of which are modulations of the 11-year cycle, may produce a similar effect on the locations of the AL and NPH (Patterson et al., 2004a and Patterson et al., 2004b). There is now a growing body of evidence that suggests that celestial and solar factors are at least partially responsible for climate variability from daily to millennial time scales.

7. Conclusion
Sediment texture, composition and diatom assemblages were determined at subseasonal to interannual scales. The stratigraphy of Slab 8 from Effingham Inlet suggests that major environmental change can occur within a couple of decades after a relatively prolonged period of climatic stability. The progressive decrease in the thickness of the varves and changes in diatom assemblages indicate that the production of marine species, and the environmental factors that support them, deteriorated over time. The concomitant increases in silt and benthic taxa point toward enhanced precipitation and continental runoff into the basin. The causal factor behind this kind of climate and environmental shift likely involves large-scale changes in the ocean–atmosphere system, namely a transition from a climate phase dominated by the NPH to one dominated by the AL. The bidecadal-scale climate shift at 4400 years BP, along with shifts observed throughout the 20th century, indicates that these shifts, whether long or short, rapid or gradual, appear to be commonplace events.
-end-
Well there's something to look forward to

...btw: Sounds as if it is just one "core" after all.

Hmmmm....
I wonder if this AL/NPH thing will behave the same in a world with increased CO2 and lacking a polar cap.

[Moontanman]

Here is some info from a rabid anti global warming guy.

Prominent MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel has publicly reversed his view regarding global warming's alleged impact on hurricanes.
“The [computer] models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us," said Emanuel, whose views on hurricanes and global warming have been prominently cited by Al Gore and other promoters of climate change fear.
He told the New York Times. "There are various interpretations possible: The big increase in hurricane power over the past 30 years or so may not have much to do with global warming, or the models are simply not faithfully reproducing what nature is doing. Hard to know which to believe yet.”
In 2005, a few weeks before Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, Emmanuel asserted in a paper that he had found statistical evidence linking rising hurricane energy and global warming.
His conversion is a very important new development in the climate debate, said Marc Morano, a top aide to climate change skeptic Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla.
"First, 2007 turned out to be the ‘tipping point’ for global warming fears, and 2008 appears to be the year of vindication for skeptics as many prominent scientists reverse their climate views, more and more skeptical scientists speak out, and new data debunks man-made climate fears.
“Now another major scientist reconsiders his views on a significant aspect of man-made climate fears.”

There were some links in this but they didn't come out for some reason.

[InfiniteNow]

Originally Posted by Moontanman

There were some links in this but they didn't come out for some reason.

Maybe because they provide the much needed context for the comments? I dunno.


Hurricane Expert Reassesses Link to Warming - Dot Earth - Climate Change and Sustainability - New York Times Blog

The new study, in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is hardly definitive in its own right, essentially raising more questions than it resolves.

If you’re a skeptic, and you welcome these results, please remember that these are the same climate models you bash when they show global temperatures steadily rising during the next century.

Hurricane expert reconsiders global warming's impact | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

"While his results don't rule out the possibility that global warming has contributed to the recent increase in activity in the Atlantic, they suggest that other factors — possibly in addition to global warming — are likely to have been substantial contributors to the observed increase in activity," Vecchi said.

[Moontanman]

Originally Posted by InfiniteNow

Maybe because they provide the much needed context for the comments? I dunno.


Hurricane Expert Reassesses Link to Warming - Dot Earth - Climate Change and Sustainability - New York Times Blog








Hurricane expert reconsiders global warming's impact | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

I'm not so much a sceptic as I think too much is being drawn from too few data points. Do I think the Earth is getting warmer in the last few thousand years, yes, is it something we can control, maybe, is it something we should be controlling, not so sure. Should we be looking at energy sources that pollute less, yes, is climate change a bad thing, maybe for us but climate change is what happens on the Earth. Far too much of the Earths history has been spent with no ice caps and large inland seas for us to be in charge of preventing this from happening again.