My belief in Global Warming is getting shaky

[Moontanman]

Originally Posted by InfiniteNow

Can you clarify something, moontanman? If you concede that humans are warming the planet, then how can you suggest that the temperature would be warmer right now naturally?

Basically, we are ABOVE natural temperatures as a result of the actions of humans, so clearly what is "natural" would be cooler than it is at present. I'm just struggling to understand the point you are making, I guess, and any clarification would be welcomed.

No problem, Yes humans are contributing to the warming of the earth, human CO2 emissions are speeding up the process. But even if we could stop all CO2 emissions the Earth would continue to warm up, slower, but warmer none the less. In the last half a billion years or so there is much reason to think the earth has spent more time with out ice caps than with ice caps. We really don't know for sure what drives these temperature fluctuations but the reality is that the Earth's so called set point is higher than it is now. LB, I agree that methane is released due to a rising temperature. That in it's self is enough for me to support lessening of our CO2 emissions but I have no doubt that we cannot postpone forever the rise that will release the methane cathrates under the sea and in permafrost. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the cycles of cold allow methane to be deposited that would not be in a warmer ocean and the rise back releases this methane in a regular cycle. The Earth is NOT A STABLE environment, never has been, never will be. All we can do is try to minimize our foot print and hope we can cling to our civilization as the Earth changes. This idea of a non stable Earth is one reason I support space colonies but that is another thread. Suffice it to say we are at the mercy of the Earth not the other way around. I've tried to say this several times but I don't seem to be getting my idea across very well. We are not in control, we have a small influence that manifests it's self in the illusion of control but it is an illusion.

[InfiniteNow]

Originally Posted by Moontanman

The Earth is NOT A STABLE environment, never has been, never will be.

Right, but noboby has ever claimed that it was. Also, would you please provide a cite that shows that the climate of the earth would, in fact, at this moment in history, be trending upward even in the absence of anthropogenic contributions of CO₂ to the atmosphere?


IIRC, we should be experiencing a cooling right now, which is why I've challenged your comment above.

[Moontanman]

Originally Posted by InfiniteNow

Right, but noboby has ever claimed that it was. Also, would you please provide a cite that shows that the climate of the earth would, in fact, at this moment in history, be trending upward even in the absence of anthropogenic contributions of CO₂ to the atmosphere?


IIRC, we should be experiencing a cooling right now, which is why I've challenged your comment above.

Infi I cannot pretend to say absolutely we would be in a warming trend right now if indeed humans weren't releasing CO2. It is probable seeing how periods of cool are shorter than periods of warm and this period of cool has been around for a long time. The end of the last ice age marks the start of a warming trend that continues today. 10 to 20 thousand years ago I don't think humans were doing anything that would be seen as contributing to global warming, if we were then we are doomed because we will never be able to go back to that point. If teh current warming trend is due to humanity and not a natural warming then we are almost certinly preventing another ice age, I think this is improbable. If you compare periods of cool with periods of warm we should indeed be getting warmer very soon if not already but it is a gradual process and not well understood. Volcanism and biology would seem to be the controlling factors in this warm cool cycle and we really don't know how much of each is needed to turn a trend around. I just think it's wrong to say that humanity is some how in control of the earths climate. We are a factor but ultimately we will not be the deciding factor. If indeed the Earth is in an upward trend then it becomes even more important that we cut any contribution we are making. The earth is quite capable of becoming much hotter then it is now with out our help.

[Eclipse Now]

Tim Flannery in his book "The Weather Makers" argues that early human agriculture may have stabilised the climate. Prior to the holocene it was bouncing into and out of ice age quite regularly. Early agriculture may have created significant methane bogs releasing methane into the atmosphere at small but significant doses over long periods of time.

As for the long term picture over 10's of millions of years, my very brief understanding of these matters is that continental drift itself can affect climate. But that's a looooong term effect. What we are discussing is preventing the earth hitting a climate tipping point where natural warming processes and feedbacks take over and suddenly it's too late.

Anyway, I think civilisation will make it, it's only the degrees of economic pain and suffering, and the unfair plight of the poor that really bugs me. The 3rd world will be the ones that suffer the most. We might lose certain measures of economic prosperity and that will feel like the end of the world to some, but to the 3rd world not being able to grow their crops... it really IS the end of their world.

[InfiniteNow]

As I mentioned, we should actually be much cooler right now, which makes the impact we're having that much more profound:

[Moontanman]

Originally Posted by InfiniteNow

As I mentioned, we should actually be much cooler right now, which makes the impact we're having that much more profound:

Hmm... Infni, I don't see it that way, to me it looks like a warming trend is way over due but that assumes a cyclic warm cool cycle similar to the past warm cool cycles.

[Moontanman]

What is the current average global temperature? About 15c is the best estimate i could get. How does this compare to the average global temps of the past 500 million years? Much cooler than most of that time? Accord to the chart infini has shown 22 degrees is the warmest and 12 would be low point. Looking at from that perspective 15 degrees doesn't look all that bad. I'm really not trying to disprove global warming i just want to put it in perspective with past temps. .

[InfiniteNow]

But that's neither here, nor there, Mike. Right now it would be cooler without humans. Right now, humans are warming the climate, and that warming is not natural. Right now, plants and animals are dying as a result of our contributions of CO₂ to the atmosphere, and we are (quite literally) destroying the base of the food chain on which we exist, as well as feeding more destructive and extreme weather conditions which devastate our habitats (residential and farming both).

[Moontanman]

Originally Posted by InfiniteNow

But that's neither here, nor there, Mike. Right now it would be cooler without humans. Right now, humans are warming the climate, and that warming is not natural. Right now, plants and animals are dying as a result of our contributions of CO₂ to the atmosphere, and we are (quite literally) destroying the base of the food chain on which we exist, as well as feeding more destructive and extreme weather conditions which devastate our habitats (residential and farming both).

That is part of my point, the Earth and it's biosphere doesn't exist to service us, it changes as the climate changes. For us to say it should be the way that serves us best is hubris on a huge scale. I will agree all day long we should change the climate any more than is absolutely necessary but to think we control the climate or that we should control the climate is just plain wrong. Not only that but the changes we have made are minuscule compared to the changes in the broad sweep of time. Animal populations will change as the climate changes. If we want a stable climate we need to leave the earth and construct our own biospheres. No matter how hard we try the Earth is going to change, if our tiny change from the current norm is a disastrous change then we are doomed because the mere presence of humans on this planet are going to cause change. We cannot avoid it with out cutting our numbers back to around a few million or so. I don't think that is going to happen.

[freeztar]

I agree with both of you.

Bottomline is that we are affecting the climate and should take action to mitigate our impact. The temperatures will likely go up regardless of what we do, but that is no excuse for inaction. I agree that we should not attempt to control the climate, at least not with our current understanding (sulfur schemes scare me). But we do need to focus on how much we are affecting things and how we can become more climate neutral as a species.