The American Pika and Global Warming

[freeztar]

Moderation Note: These posts were moved from the thread "My Belief in Global Warming is Getting Shaky" because they deal with a more specific subject than the general discussion of anthropogenic global warming.

Consider the American pika.

Originally Posted by wiki

Recent studies suggest that species populations are declining due to various factors, most notably Global Warming.[6] A 2003 study, published in the Journal of Mammology, showed that 9 out of 25 sampled populations of American Pika had disappeared, causing biologists to conclude that the species is reaching extinction.[7]

As they live in the high and cooler mountain regions, they are very sensitive to high temperatures, and are considered to be one of the best early warning systems for detecting global warming in the western United States.[8] Because their regular habitat's temperature rises, the American Pikas move higher up the mountain.[6] Scientists report that pikas can die within an hour if the outside temperature reaches above 23°C (75°F).[6]

Does it matter to humans if the pika disappears? Not in the big scheme of things.
Should we be concerned by its disappearance? Certainly, imo!

[Cedars]

To confront widespread global warming alarmist propaganda:
American Pika
Range: Distributed discontinuously in mountainous areas from southern British Columbia and southern Alberta, south to southern California, Nevada, southern Utah, and northern New Mexico, and east to Wyoming and Colorado.

Habitat: Found from sea level to 9800 feet (3000 m) in northern range, infrequently below 8200 feet (2500 m) in the southern part of their range. Unique habitat in Idaho includes the Craters of the Moon National Monument where the landscape is characterized by rather recent lava flows not typical of mountain talus slopes.

Conservation:
Status: Protected nongame species
Global Rank: G5 ( Demonstrably widespread, abundant, and secure.)
State Rank: S5

Source: American Pika

Conservation Status
IUCN Red List: Lower Risk - Least Concern.

Above source Wiki

Animal Diversity Web
Conservation Status: No special status.

A few isolated populations in the Great Basin are threatened, but most populations are abundant.

ADW: Ochotona princeps: Information

Colorado American Pika map:
http://ndis.nrel.colostate.edu/plugi...aps/050038.jpg

Washington State Pika Map:
Distribution Map - Pika (Ochotona princeps)

Nuff said.

[freeztar]

Originally Posted by Cedars

To confront widespread global warming alarmist propaganda:
American Pika
...
Nuff said.

Regardless of whatever current conservation status they have, the scientific data speaks for itself and always comes before any protection.

Global warming represents the gravest threat to the long-term survival of the American pika. In the western United States, temperatures have already increased by 1.1*2.8°C (2.0-5.0°F) during the past century (Smith et al. 2001). Beever et al. (2003) documented the extirpation of six of twenty-five pika populations in the Great Basin range of Nevada and Oregon over 55-86 years and found significant evidence that global warming has caused or contributed to these extirpations. Between 2003-2007 Beever resurveyed Great Basin pika populations and found additional population extirpations and an increased pace of population loss since the 1990s (Erik Beever, personal communication, 8/10/07). Overall, in the past century, at least 9 of 25 (36%) of documented Great Basin pika populations have been extirpated and the pika range has
shifted upslope by 900 feet. In parallel with trends in the Great Basin, the Grinnell Resurvey
Project in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Yosemite National Park, California, detected the loss of the lowest-elevation pika population in the ~90 years between the historic Grinnell survey and modern resurvey (Moritz 2007), suggesting an upslope range shift of 500 feet. Temperatures in Yosemite National Park have increased by 3°C (5.4°C) over 100 years, more than the mean increase in California or western United States temperatures over the same period (Moritz 2007). Moritz (2007) concludes that the most likely factor underlying the range shift in the pika and other high elevation species is temperature increases.

http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/s...10-01-2007.pdf

[Cedars]

Originally Posted by freeztar

Regardless of whatever current conservation status they have, the scientific data speaks for itself and always comes before any protection.

Ah yes, the scientific data which is referred to in a legal filing. Not like lawyers presenting their case gloss over inconvient portions of scientific data. However, from this exact legal document:

"Because juvenile dispersal occurs within months of birth, juveniles at low-altitude sites in the Sierra Nevada generally disperse during the summer, when temperatures are high, leading to low dispersal success (Smith 1974a). Following a dry winter or early spring, the period for gathering hay may end before juveniles disperse, greatly reducing success of dispersing juveniles (Smith 1974a)."

*interestingly, this area has been experiencing dryer conditions. Combine that with the data indicating the planning of the resevoir system all over the west was calculated on conditions present during an unusually wet period leading to some of the water issues we are seeing.

"Peacock (1997) found that an average of 34% of the adults in a high elevation Sierra Nevada population (3,170 m, 10,398 ft) were replaced each winter by immigrants, 5% of which made long-distance dispersals of 2 km, 67.5% of which made short or intermediate dispersals less than 2 km, and 27.5% of which recruited from within the population."

"At Bodie, eleven habitat islands occupied in 1972 were unoccupied in 1977, and eight sites unoccupied in 1972 were occupied in 1977 (Smith 1980). Smith (1980) also found that 53% of 77 islands changed in territory saturation over the five years, and higher extinction and lower recolonization rates were associated with small island size and increased isolation"

Another article in WWF added small tidbits to the bigger picture of these isolated pockets of rabbit relatives not mentioned in the legal briefing. Road construction and increased human populations in these pika areas as having an impact on their populations (however they did not list enough data to conclude what percentage of pika decline was related to this factor, but it was noted).

The ABCnews portion of the Pika story adds more suspense as Chris Ray of the University of Colorado states they are looking into a possible viral infection sweeping thru some of these pockets of pikas. Would explain the half eaten winter supplies in some of these now abandoned pika locations.

Pretty amazing what a viral impact can have on a population of 'whatever'. Worse when the host animal (source of the initial infection) is something as common as a dog (when canine distemper wiped out huge numbers of sea lions off the UK coasts) or dog distemper wiping out huge numbers of african lions (I think it was dog distemper).

There is also the lack of historical data. Piece after piece referred to 1933, then nothing until the late 50s, then some bits from the 70s and now suddenly, its a tragedy unfolding. They are members of the rabbit family, a family with well documented high / low population cycles.

It is well known genetically isolated creatures have a greater potential for increase mortality rates with slight shifts in habitat. The introduction of a disease can push an animal over the edge when it evolves into too narrow of a niche.

[freeztar]

Originally Posted by Cedars

Ah yes, the scientific data which is referred to in a legal filing. Not like lawyers presenting their case gloss over inconvient portions of scientific data.

The lead author is Shaye Wolf who has a PhD in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology.

"Because juvenile dispersal occurs within months of birth, juveniles at low-altitude sites in the Sierra Nevada generally disperse during the summer, when temperatures are high, leading to low dispersal success (Smith 1974a). Following a dry winter or early spring, the period for gathering hay may end before juveniles disperse, greatly reducing success of dispersing juveniles (Smith 1974a)."

*interestingly, this area has been experiencing dryer conditions. Combine that with the data indicating the planning of the resevoir system all over the west was calculated on conditions present during an unusually wet period leading to some of the water issues we are seeing.

"Peacock (1997) found that an average of 34% of the adults in a high elevation Sierra Nevada population (3,170 m, 10,398 ft) were replaced each winter by immigrants, 5% of which made long-distance dispersals of 2 km, 67.5% of which made short or intermediate dispersals less than 2 km, and 27.5% of which recruited from within the population."

"At Bodie, eleven habitat islands occupied in 1972 were unoccupied in 1977, and eight sites unoccupied in 1972 were occupied in 1977 (Smith 1980). Smith (1980) also found that 53% of 77 islands changed in territory saturation over the five years, and higher extinction and lower recolonization rates were associated with small island size and increased isolation"

Ok, but what about long term trends.

Another article in WWF added small tidbits to the bigger picture of these isolated pockets of rabbit relatives not mentioned in the legal briefing. Road construction and increased human populations in these pika areas as having an impact on their populations (however they did not list enough data to conclude what percentage of pika decline was related to this factor, but it was noted).

I wouldn't doubt that these aspects would be factors in the decline, but without numbers, it's impossible to quantify their contributions.

The ABCnews portion of the Pika story adds more suspense as Chris Ray of the University of Colorado states they are looking into a possible viral infection sweeping thru some of these pockets of pikas. Would explain the half eaten winter supplies in some of these now abandoned pika locations.

I don't know anything about this, but again, without data it's impossible to quantify.

There is also the lack of historical data. Piece after piece referred to 1933, then nothing until the late 50s, then some bits from the 70s and now suddenly, its a tragedy unfolding. They are members of the rabbit family, a family with well documented high / low population cycles.

The paragraph I previously quoted had a study by Beever analyzing data from 1950-2003.

It is well known genetically isolated creatures have a greater potential for increase mortality rates with slight shifts in habitat. The introduction of a disease can push an animal over the edge when it evolves into too narrow of a niche.

Agreed, yet it still remains that the scientist I previously quoted was pointing towards increased temps as the predominant reason for the shift in habitat.

Perhaps we should break this off into another thread?

[Cedars]

Originally Posted by freeztar

The lead author is Shaye Wolf who has a PhD in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology.

OK but its still points derived from a legal brief (your link, not mine). Its an appeal to authority to imply that this document you linked to must be the whole truth and nothing but the truth by suggesting this degree factor has any relationship to the presentation of suit points in a legal briefing.

And I know enough about number crunching with people who are counting animals. I grew up with direct contact with the researchers involved with counting timber (gray) wolves in Minnesota during their listing phase. I am also alarmed with the MN methods of counting eagles and swans and I believe I have posted laments on that in the birding thread.

Originally Posted by freeztar

Ok, but what about long term trends.

There is no OMG its AGW trend. The isolated populations where declines are apparently being noted are marginal pika supporting habitats. Additionally, populations (geographically) of American Pikas *who seemed to have migrated across the bering straight* have fluctuated greatly over the last 12K years.

Originally Posted by freeztar

I wouldn't doubt that these aspects would be factors in the decline, but without numbers, it's impossible to quantify their contributions.

Fine, then why not show the same restraint when declaring "Global Warming is Killing Little Rabbit Relatives"? Now I am not saying you declared such a thing, but you did link to an article and posted it in this thread. So maybe a different thread would be appropriate.

Originally Posted by freeztar

The paragraph I previously quoted had a study by Beever analyzing data from 1950-2003.

Yes, data he did not collect, data which did not include numbers and produced information such as "abundant populations" based on chirps and calls heard. No > 15 per acre data there, no actual counts of animals who scurry about and call out abundantly to confirm/deny what the population is/was.

Look at the picture in the link. That is data from Beever regarding American Pika populations. The blue shaded area is pika habitat and is believed to be mostly habitated today (Beevers words). Sites of Pre historic extinctions are the yellow areas (via archeological and paleological info). Notice how much yellow there is? The area of most concern is in the upper left side. Notice how marginal the habitat is?

The American Pika is in no danger of extinction and should not be referenced (imho) as an example of AGW killing small furry creatures.

I should also mention during research for this particular point in the thread, it came to my attention the study Beever did was funded by the WWF. After all the screaming about "they work for [oil,mining,etc], I thought it relevant to point out the funding source.

Here is a direct quote from Ray Beever regarding his study:

"Acute cold stress had a strong negative effect in models, chronic heat stress had slightly less of a negative effect. Loss of cold days—the only climate-change metric with good support—had a modest effect. And acute heat stress had a minor negative effect on persistence. ...snipped a bit...

We’re not arguing that direct thermal stress is the cause of this range shift."