North Korea's got the Bomb!

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by Mercedes Benzene

Here's my opinion on how things will play out (in abbreviated note format).

-China will try to persuade US and others to take a calm, diplomatic approach (perhaps 6 nation talks). This will upset US and others, who wish to take more serious (sanction OR military?) actions
It will be interesting indeed to see how things play out.

Nicely positioned opinion, and well thought too. I only dare comment then on the one passage as it pertains to fact, and that is to say the US is encouraging the 6 party route and does not intend to engage in direct talks (or military action) with N. Korea because that's what the little squirt running the place wants most.

It will be indeed interesting to see how things play out.
PS On the news they are still questioning if the blast was even nuclear or not!?

[Boerseun]

Another dynamic here is that they have tested their missiles for a while now, and they normally drop them in the sea of Japan for testing purposes. But these missiles have become more stable, and can carry the payload required by a nuke. They are by no means intercontinental, but can blow Japan to smithereens.

I suspect that Kim Jong Il's trump card in any confrontation with the US would be to pop one of those suckers towards Tokyo, Japan being the US's prime ally in the region. And they are certainly capable of doing it.

The scary thing is that these rockets are fully mobile, and not having to be intercontinental, they're not so big as to require silos or any such thing. They are mounted on the back of a camouflaged truck. They only need one that can be launched to the heart of Tokyo to send world markets crashing.

So, if the US engages in talks, the message sent to all the tinpot dictators around the world would be that persuing the nuclear road is the way to go, because then the Big Boys will listen to you. If the US gets involved militarily, then Kim can, and I think he probably will, launch to Tokyo. He wouldn't care much about the economic repercussions, because of their long-held policy of duche, installed by his father, they have very little trade internationally in any case. So, if world markets collapse, North Korea will probably be the least affected. His people are starving as it is, and it's not bothering him much. So why would a global economic meltdown bug him?

This guy's crazy, and armed. He would have featured excellently as the megalomaniac Bad Guy in one of the old James Bond movies.

But I think from the US' military perspective, whether to invade or talk, it's a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't".

[Qfwfq]

Remember Boerseun that the test is a step, the actual threat is not yet quite as great as you paint it.

I think measures should be taken without giving Kim Jong II what he wants, and the idea of supporting internal partisans is good, they know their way around. Send them food, first of all, so that KJ can't starve them. All regimes have repressed opposition, yet there have been partisans against many of them. There were partisans against the Nazi-Fascists despite not having a great support from outside, they lived in hiding and ate what they could. Back then, the Allies should have done more to support them and should have been better coordinated with them, instead they often acted cross-purposes. I wonder if anybody who counts will be smarter this time.

[KickAssClown]

All I got to say about it is thus:
Woah, damn.

I always said building them things are so easy that an eight year old could do it. I am hoping that it doesn't get thrown out of purportion. I mean it is an issue that a dangerous individual now controls what appears to be pop rockets in the world of nuclear armorments. Once again I am going to have to step outside the bounds of conventional divisions and cite that we, as a dependent world nation, have failed to meet our global obligations and may very well end up suffering for it. World War II comes to mind.

I am hoping that G.W.B. in his infinite wisdom *snicker* has the mind to treat Jong with the appropiate respect and all. Hmmm... two irrational individuals armed with nukes, treating each other with respect. Sound like this situation here? I don't think so.

[Mercedes Benzene]

Apparently word just came from a N. Korean official:
Korea's next step will be to conduct a nuclear missile test if the US does not stop its stop of sanctions.
I highly doubt they have the full capability to smallen (hehe Turtle) a nuclear weapon and put it on a missile successfully.
Again, this is just one thing where we'll have to wait and see.

[arkain101]

what was strange, this paper (dream) was submitted before the news of this event.

http://briansprediction.com/pri/OCT2030.jpg

"lies, North Korea, 22 hours, Nuclear test, 217, lies" Basically, in 22 hours North Korea will test a nuclear device.

Apparently word just came from a N. Korean official:
Korea's next step will be to conduct a nuclear missile test if the US does not stop its stop of sanctions.

According to another dream, A second nuclear even will occur with a missile on the date 12.21
http://briansprediction.com/pri/OCT2034.jpg

North Korea's second nuclear test is ready, and will happen at 12:21.

One other is:

"Stop the ship, 20 million die" A ship soon will depart for the Marianas Trench carrying a very large nuclear weapon. The weapon is disguised as a deep water unmanned submarine. The bomb will be lowered to a depth of 9,650 M and then detonated, the explosion will produce a very large Tsunami and kill more than 20 million people. The ship was purchased by Al Qaeda, and so was the bomb. The US Military has found diagrams of this bomb and details of the this mission in a cave...I suggest they study the plans and keep a lookout for this ship.

It sounds rediculous, but theres so many correct hits that I'd take it into consideration.

[InfiniteNow]

2003: US - If Saddam's got WMDs, we'll disarm him. Result - War (ongoing at present). No WMDs, but it's a good thing that we can be sure of it.

2006: US - N.K. has them, tested them to confirm, and refuses to stop. Result - Hey Kim, well, uhh, you'd better stop, okay? Please?? Come on ole' buddy...

[alexander]

"You disarm or we will" actual quote

I find this chrisis weird in nature, i mean i understand why japan ans SC are freaking out, but the position of US and UN are not really at best. First off, and i'm not pro korea, just find it ironic that US and UN have tested probably a dozen nuclear warheads, from pre hiroshima blast in the mojave desert, to hydrogen bomb tests out in the paciffic and thermonuclear bomb tests out in the atlantic, the sahara desert and who knows where else...
And yet here comes North Korea with a 1/2 kiloton blast and its like why is there this huge fuss over it?
I do understand the other side that NC is agains everyone and has been going against UN regulations. Lets see how countries retaliate (japan is blocking out NC all together and asking for similar retaliations from others)
at the same time next head of UN may be South Korean (no kidding) so what kind of crazyess will happen with him and NC.

Just thoughts...

[Boerseun]

Originally Posted by InfiniteNow

2003: US - If Saddam's got WMDs, we'll disarm him. Result - War (ongoing at present). No WMDs, but it's a good thing that we can be sure of it.

2006: US - N.K. has them, tested them to confirm, and refuses to stop. Result - Hey Kim, well, uhh, you'd better stop, okay? Please?? Come on ole' buddy...

Er... maybe 'cause there's no oil or sumtin'...

Very good point, and makes one wonder how talking the talk and walking the walk features in international politics.

[HydrogenBond]

Many other countries have N-bombs. N Korea is a nation that is bankrupt, which places all its prestige on the military. In that respect it is one of the leading miltary powers, but with last generation equipment. Nukes are the easiest way to them get into the big leagues. I doubt they will ever use their nukes in an offensive way. The backlash of this, though, may be the rearming of Japan. On the positive side, this will lower the US miltary bill in that region. On the negative side, this may create an instability in that region since both Korea and China may still be still feeling some of the sting from WWII. It may actually help the Koreas to integrate again. Who knows what the future will have in store, especially if Japan's defense looks like an offensive capability, i.e, first strike.

The thing about nukes is that it scared the superpowers sober. These create a no win situation, where everyone loses in the end. Without nukes, the super powers may get drunk with power once again.

The nuke blast that N korea did was fairly small. This means one of two things. Either they have limited material and are trying not to waste it or they have the tech to make some advanced tactical weapons that are used in primarily limited engagements. Either way, it seems to imply that their intent is too have nukes for prestige but used them sparingly.