Conflict in the 21st century...

[Boerseun]

So...

The 20th century have seen the two biggest wars ever, which started as European affairs, but escalated into worldwide conflicts in order to establish the power-balance we have been faced with till the end of the Cold War.

What now?

What would be the seed for conflict in the 21st century?

Obviously, terrorism will be with us till the end of days - but from a 'battle between nations' perspective, where's the danger?

I think there might be a few possible scenarios:

1) China and India rear up as the two biggest countries (populationwise), each striving to be the dominant country in the East. This might lead to an arms race, economic warfare (with Western countries having to choose either one for import and export, but not both, in order to keep their potential customers happy), with the whole world being polarised one way or the other (almost a replay of the Cold War, with a country being either Pro-US or Pro USSR, but not both). Could this lead to war? Then Japan would also strive to keep its economic dominance in the East, throwing a third factor in the mix...

2) The US and the European Union are currently the two biggest economies in the world. Their growth rate is very slow compared to the Eastern giants coming up. Would they revert to military intimidation in order to protect their leadership positions in the world?

But are there actually any hard issues in the forseeable future (say, the next century) that could lead to a Third World War? Or is the human race sufficiently scared of nukes to even attempt it? I don't think a lot of germans expected WW2 in the 30's. We might be five years away from the biggest calamity in world history and not know it. What, though, would lead to it?

Another example might be some country like China openly supporting Al Qaida in an attempt at powerplay with the US, to show its independence. That would force the US to declare war on China. Countries allied either way would then have to get into the fray, and Big Shit will ensue. I don't see it happening in the short term, though...

Ideas?

[Tarantism]

Originally Posted by Boerseun

But are there actually any hard issues in the forseeable future (say, the next century) that could lead to a Third World War? Or is the human race sufficiently scared of nukes to even attempt it? I don't think a lot of germans expected WW2 in the 30's. We might be five years away from the biggest calamity in world history and not know it. What, though, would lead to it?

one word: Patrollium(sp?)

[Boerseun]

Yeah - lack of resources. That's basically what made Japan do what it did in the 1940's. Pearl Harbour etc. was just a pre-emptive strike to prevent the US from stopping Japan grabbing resources (especially oil) in the Pacific and Indonesia.

But I think the supply of carbohydrates being finite is common knowledge to all Big Powers, so anybody willing to go to war to ensure a flow of crude should know that the flow would only be temporary; at some stage it will dry up. So why go to war for it? Rather wean your economies off oil as soon as possible.

Good point, though.

[Tarantism]

in looking for the end-all replacement for oil the world powers may scramble to secure whatever the replacement is for economical advantages. that may cause arguments and eventually military occupation, which is bound to piss someone off.

there seems to be such a short fuse to the world's patience.

[InfiniteNow]

Originally Posted by (((tartanism)))

in looking for the end-all replacement for oil the world powers may scramble to secure whatever the replacement is for economical advantages. that may cause arguments and eventually military occupation, which is bound to piss someone off.

there seems to be such a short fuse to the world's patience.

First, I've heard some stories that China is planning to build a city that focusses completely on lower-environmental impact vehicles and industry practices... sort of like an Asian Detriot that takes oil out of the equation. I heard it on NPR, but below are some other indications of the same:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english...ent_511935.htm
http://www.publicradio.org/tools/med...=00:00:20:35.0
http://www.mongabay.org/images/2006/..._1990-2025.jpg

Maybe we'll attack China for NOT using oil??? That'd be like 48 different levels of retarded right there, eh?

As for the short fuse of the world's patience... it's getting hotter, and space is getting less abundant. Heat plays a role in behavior (hotter climates have a higher murder rate, and also summer months see more murder than winter months) and also the closer we are together, and the more of us there are, the more irritated we get.

http://www.apa.org/monitor/feb98/global.html
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/city.htm



Call it... Socio-behavioral friction.

[Tarantism]

hehehehehehehehehehehehe

humans are doomed!

cheers!

[TINNY]

hehehehehehehehehehehehe

humans are doomed!

cheers!

It is depressing to see that the zeitgeist of today is still one of force and agression.

Quote from The Unified Theory of Existence:

That the human race should turn from the path of force and aggression to the path of peace and love is the natural course of development. It will happen, in fact it must happen, unless the human race comes to an end before that change has a chance to take place.

Anyways, an interesting book on modern future conflicts is that of Samuel Huntington's Clash of Civilization.

[Tarantism]

the one thing that i just pulled from that is that human have made a "Unified Theory" to mutual "existance".

hilarious.

[orbsycli]

some do, yeah.
Mariage, for instance?

IMO, marriage is BS. Since when did we have to sign papers to have sex?

Anyways, I'm going to go live in a tantric house
SEE YA

[GAHD]

somehow i'm thinking china *is* the big power to worry about, within a decade they look poised to economicly rule the world, and with that the only option the states has to maintain their balance of power is war...which with the sheer amount of bipedal meat there is in China, is not an ashured victory by any means.

The logical thing would be a preemptive nuclear bombardment of the country to decimate it's threat, a likely reason for the surge in missile defence programs. The midde east would also be a good staging ground for covert attacks on the Eastern Empire(s), much as it was a good ground to strike into Mother Russia, so that would seem to be a premptive move in of itself.

At the same time China needs to step-up their resource intake and get a platform for their agents, seems they just bought up first option on the tar sand in alberta, and something about the land ownership in BC spikes my paranoia nerves too.

Aside from the two biggest dragons, the other thing I can see is other nations taking the US' stance on 'freedom' and going to other countries to protect their homelands.

If none of that Kills us all, and we do find an alternate to Petrochemicals, the next big issue will be clean & pure water, a resource that is rapidly being depleted all over the world. Soon it'll be more likely to war for something to drink than something to burn.