The survival of oil bearing nations and OPEC in an increasingly green world?

[200mg]

I come here from time to time and read these forums. This is my first post.

I was lying in bed this morning thinking about the irony that some middle east countries have absolutely nothing to export except the one thing that every country needs the most. I then wondered what would happen to the economy of these countries as the larger nations put more effort into developing technologies to break our oil addiction.

What do you guys think the middle east will become when the USA, China, and GB are no longer dependent on oil.

[Zythryn]

I don't expect the world going green to impact the oil exports that much as I don't believe the world will as a whole do that.
Even if the US did, I don't believe China and India will for some time after we do. And when they get around to it, I think other countries will be increasing their oil demand.

I think it more likely that they will run out of oil before they suffer from lack of demand. Not sure if it will be 25 years or 100 years, but I suspect it will happen.

[jackson33]

first; there is no breaking our energy addiction. energy drives the world economy, welfare and all standards of life. these are relatively new to much of the world and not likely going anywhere.

now, oil is the cheapest most efficient and very much part of the totals. oil based products could ALL be replace today in theory and many have or underway in elimination. as the so called alternatives come into play and the cost come down, energy will be a choice to the consumer.

OPEC countries for the most part have not participated in the free market system. ruled by religious factions, dictators or forms of family monarchies.
this too is changing with the realization, their oil or the need for it, may some day end. certainly if the monies received have been invested or used for worthwhile purpose they will convert in a number of industry as the capitalistic system is approached for help....

[Tormod]

Originally Posted by jackson33

OPEC countries for the most part have not participated in the free market system. ruled by religious factions, dictators or forms of family monarchies.

Just pointing out one of the OPEC members that do participate in the free market system: Norway.

[jackson33]

of course, your correct; Norway, does not fit my scenario, however do not think the thread author had them in mind.....unless Norway has moved to the middle east...

[Tormod]

Originally Posted by jackson33

of course, your correct; Norway, does not fit my scenario, however do not think the thread author had them in mind.....unless Norway has moved to the middle east...

Sorry, I was just testing the waters. Norway is not a member of OPEC, nor are Britain or any European countries. OPEC states are all "developing nations", as they say.

They are an extremely varied group, though. I doubt that it's possible to predict the future of all of them at once.

Their reliability on oil export is also varied, as is the amount of oil exported.

Edit: Forgot to add that the thread title stated "oil bearing nations and OPEC", not OPEC nations specifically. Although the original post mentions the middle east specifically, only a few OPEC countries reside there.

Here's an interesting chart:
Untitled Document

[TheBigDog]

There will never be a shortage of demand for oil. If all the first world nations were to use nothing but alternative fuels the next tier of nations would step in and take up the remaining supply to fuel their own growth. It is cheap and proven. You need oil to develop the infrastructure required to no longer need oil.

Bill

[jackson33]

Tormod; forgive my attempt to be polite. i should have sent my first response saying in brief, although the third producer in daily oil supply and so on, i decided to go with the Mid East angle. you are an administrator and i have been previously banded from this site, so my efforts were in vain.

considering the overall make up however, the predictability is not hard to figure, with any idealogical interference. my point to the thread, was the change over possibility on a positive note to a capitalistic system with no change in over all potentials.