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Originally Posted by pgrmdave
As I understand it, it is not for their oil, per se, but rather for the potential to run a pipeline through afghanistan. However, I haven't looked into it in a long time, and I can't say that I'm very familiar with the region.
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The war for pipeline thing is untrue. It's a conspiracy theory. The pipeline would more-likely have been built without the war than with it. The Taliban had already agreed to its construction. Also, it wouldn't be an oil pipeline as Turkmenistan has little oil, but is the 4th largest holder of natural gas in the world.
It would be beneficial for America if this pipeline were built, but it would be more beneficial for the region. Turkmenistan would benefit most along with Afghanistan which would gain significant income from transport fees. Pakistan and India would be the largest recipients of the pipeline's product which is an eager prospect for both countries.
Turkmenistan has vast riches just like Kazakhstan to the north. Unfortunately, they do not share a border with Russia like Kazakhstan does limiting Russia's ability to control Turkmenistan's distribution. Russia wants to control any pipeline that's built in order to control the oil/gas market of eastern (and soon western) Europe. This gives Russia political power which they are not afraid to use.
They wield this power by raising oil rates to ridiculous levels unless countries comply with their political demands. They will even withhold oil completely if their demands aren't met. In 2004 the Ukraine was accompanying itself diplomatically with the EU to which Russia responded by upping prices. Ukraine resisted further in 2005 and Russia shut off the pipeline completely (in the middle of winter).
So, Russia doesn't want to loose this power. A gas pipeline was recently completed running from Azerbaijan (west side of the Caspian sea) to open ocean in Turkey (
South Caucasus Pipeline). This was a good development for Turkmenistan which would be able to run a pipeline across the bottom the Caspian and on to open markets. However, this prospect would not benefit Russia either monetarily or politically so they did everything possible to stop the project which it looks like the succeeded in. The proposed underwater pipeline was:
Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline
RIA Novosti - Opinion & analysis - Energy nexus: Russia and Central Asia
JTW News - End of Russian Monopoly in Energy?!
EurasiaNet Business & Economics - Russia Celebrates its Central Asian Energy Coup
It is notable that China, like the US, is worried about being so totally dependent on Middle Eastern oil. As wikipedia says on their ‘Strait of Malacca’ page:
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About a quarter of all oil carried by sea passes through the strait, mainly from Persian Gulf suppliers to Asian markets such as China, Japan, and South Korea.
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A Naval conflict could seriously hinder China’s ability to sustain itself if shipping lanes were unsafe for oil freighters. It is, therefore, a strategy of China to import oil by other (more direct) routes that will be less vulnerable to possible future aggressors. They are finishing up the
Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline which is currently operating as China’s first direct import pipeline.
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are therefore both doing quite well at distributing their natural resources (as is, of course, Russia). The only country really lagging in their ability to get the Caspian Sea's oil and gas out of the landlocked region is Turkmenistan. Unfortunately, instability in Afghanistan has put plans for a
trans-Afghanistan pipeline on hold and, Russia put the trans-Caspian plans on hold. It would be nice to get that gas out to the world, and it's really sad that if they are ever able to do so via Afghanistan there will be people who jump on that fact saying "See - that's why America went to war". Really sad.
~modest
