Politics of Iran

[Jway]

First off, I find the news in recent days of Iran protests, eye opening. Perhaps it's a bit naivete on my part, but it seems more like an underlying current is elevated to the surface, and it is a current that I think is hardly unique to Iran. I think similar current exists in US, but in US, it would be called something else, something very sinister.

Anyway, I have 2 questions, somewhat rhetorical, but am hoping for discussion and commentary on this.

1 - If Mousavi is hand picked by the regime, and wins the presidential election, why would he not be allowed to take office?

The important words in that question, IMO, is "if he is hand picked." If he is not, then I can understand why not. You'd think there would be someone in high place of power in Iran who thought this through and realizes, "wow, we completely mismanaged this one." How, is Iran not getting exactly what it deserves, via violent protests, IF they hand pick a candidate, that candidate wins majority, and then they go with the minority leader instead?

2 - Now, let's say Iran's current regime is toppled. Let's also say that instead of the protesters being around 51% of the population or up to 67%, let's go with liberal estimate that says 75% of the people in Iran want regime change. And let's say that change occurs. Let's say it is, after this uprising, a peaceful transition. With me so far?

Okay, now let's say it is 3 months later, and there is a new sheriff in the town known as Iran. One that is favorable to the US and Israel. My question is, what do people (today) think that 25% population is going to do? Stop being repressive? Stop hating the west? Stop advocating and financially supporting factions on this planet that wish to see Israel wiped off the face of the earth?

If Iraq faced an insurgency that has lasted 5 years and counting, I'm wondering what the world thinks will happen in Iran? Are the protesters and those who are advocating for new regime making any friends, earning any respect with what could be fairly powerful sect within the new government?

I realize this is all still playing out, but let us again return to the idea that the new leader Mousavi, was HAND PICKED by the repressive regime. And this new regime will benefit Israel, and it's western alliances, how?

[lemit]

That requires a few too many assumptions.

My Iranian sources tell me the urban, western leaning, middle class of Iran constitute a slight majority, but are disorganized, having a half dozen or so different competing factions. That allows the well-armed, well-organized, rural, religious minority to remain in power.

Absent a blood investment by the middle class, nothing will change. I'm not optimistic.

I'd rather not get into an analogy with U.S. politics. There's enough complexity to Iranian politics to keep us busy.

--lemit

[Turtle]

Watching some PBS news last night, one of the guests was explaining the different ruling bodies in Iran and how they operate politically. Apparently one of these bodies, the Supreme Council I think they said, has to approve candidates, although I didn't get the sense that they actually go out and "pick" people to apply to run and then approve them. Still, it's not exactly "open" in the sense we Americans think when talking about our elections.

Also, they don't run campaigns for lengthy periods as we do; I think I heard they had 2 weeks of campaigning in Iran for this past Presidential election. Mousavi became the kinda' default candidate for a wider middle class movement...or so I heard someone say. He has held the position of Iranian Prime Minister and was part & parcel of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, so he is not unknown to Iranian politics.

Certainly interesting stuff to watch, and who among us doesn't want to see that sawed off little hater Ahmadouchebag get put out of office.

[carlton-temple]

To deviate a little : A few minutes ago I saw on twitter that the Iranian interior minister is alleged to have said that "the very high turn out of 140% was due to fine weather" !!!

[Michaelangelica]

Originally Posted by Turtle

Also, they don't run campaigns for lengthy periods as we do;

No one has longer elections than Yanks. It amazes me people are not in the streets demanding a dictatorship
(See the old film The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer by Peter Cook- available from Amazon UK but not Amazon USA--"they" are keeping it from you. )

News tonight-Iran 10 dead, 400ish in jail-- another Tiananmen Square?

It is hard to beleive there are 20YO Chinese alive today that know nothing of it.
Did Tiananmen Square change anything?

Join Amnesty.

[lemit]

Originally Posted by Turtle

Watching some PBS news last night, one of the guests was explaining the different ruling bodies in Iran and how they operate politically. Apparently one of these bodies, the Supreme Council I think they said, has to approve candidates, although I didn't get the sense that they actually go out and "pick" people to apply to run and then approve them. Still, it's not exactly "open" in the sense we Americans think when talking about our elections.

Also, they don't run campaigns for lengthy periods as we do; I think I heard they had 2 weeks of campaigning in Iran for this past Presidential election. Mousavi became the kinda' default candidate for a wider middle class movement...or so I heard someone say. He has held the position of Iranian Prime Minister and was part & parcel of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, so he is not unknown to Iranian politics.

Certainly interesting stuff to watch, and who among us doesn't want to see that sawed off little hater Ahmadouchebag get put out of office.

Somebody explained that since the Ayatollah Khamenei dominates the Supreme Council, it's truly a one-man-one-vote system.

Now that the middle class has taken to the streets, maybe that will change, but I'm not optimistic. I would guess the result of Tiananmen Square is much more likely than the result of the Solidarity Movement.

--lemit

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by lemit

Somebody explained that since the Ayatollah Khamenei dominates the Supreme Council, it's truly a one-man-one-vote system.

Now that the middle class has taken to the streets, maybe that will change, but I'm not optimistic. I would guess the result of Tiananmen Square is much more likely than the result of the Solidarity Movement.

--lemit

acknowledged. but, there is the Assembly of Experts which has authority over the Supreme Leader. Assembly of Experts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

anyway, protests continue, folks are gettin' locked up, and Mousavi continues to encourage peaceful protests.
'Neda' becomes rallying cry for Iranian protests - CNN.com

best of luck good folk of Iran!

[Jway]

While I am around 85% in agreement with the Obama administration's handling of the situation since election results from June 12th in Iran, I feel cynicism in language Obama used today to address the situation. He said, "I strongly condemn these unjust actions."

I get a little tired of world leaders strongly condemning each other.

Like me saying, I strongly condemn that meteor that is on path to hit earth someday. Strongly condemn it.

[InfiniteNow]

And Obama's been getting hammered by Republicans for a week now for not speaking out strongly enough, including John McCain himself on Face the Nation this Sunday. He just can't win. He keeps his mouth shut, people rail against him. He speaks, they say he's not being forceful enough. He gets a little more forceful, and suddenly he's been too forceful.

All of this "how is Obama reacting" is a pure distraction from the heart of the story, which is the people of Iran, what's going on with their election, and the fact that Iran is a sovereign nation which does not and should not give a rats anus about what the US thinks about it's internal politics.

[Racoon]

Originally Posted by Jway

While I am around 85% in agreement with the Obama administration's handling of the situation since election results from June 12th in Iran, I feel cynicism in language Obama used today to address the situation. He said, "I strongly condemn these unjust actions."

I get a little tired of world leaders strongly condemning each other.

Like me saying, I strongly condemn that meteor that is on path to hit earth someday. Strongly condemn it.

I think the US is being Hypocritical, as usual, when 'We' say that it is an Injustice what the Iranian authorities are doing to the protesters about the election.

Why?
IF Obama lost the election, and the popular vote knew he really won, and then started protesting in the streets, began throwing rocks, starting fires, and flipping over cars, That our Police, National Guard, and SWAT would be right there Clashing with the protesters and arresting and knocking teeth out too.