Society destroyed...

[Boerseun]

The thread 'Evolution' has taken a wild curve, so much so that I have to open up this new thread to give it some space.

The premise: Civilization has been destroyed. Forget about the cause - it's not important. 99.9% of all people are dead and gone.

The question: How would civilization react? Would we revert back to the Stone Ages, or Dark Ages, and over hundreds of years start to revere the mystic ancients who left behind all these spectacular relics - or will we quickly re-invent society?

I'm of the opinion that after all the canned food has run out, most of the survivors will have to be actively involved in agriculture, which will have to be manual, cause there's no diesel pumping anymore for the tractors. And with such a large extent of the population engaged in tilling the soil, free time available for study will be few and far between. Study will be a luxury, and after very few generations, those few that have control over magical things like electricity will be regarded as mystics and priests, even.

What's your thoughts on this? I'm just thinking that civilization is walking a very fine tightrope, and speculating about it might serve to illustrate that fact.

[nkt]

I'm probably not alone in knowing that I am capable of re-building civilisation from scratch, if I was one of the few that survived.

Your thread on fun hobbies, which covered making and forgeing iron into workable tools and shapes, shows that you, yourself, could turn your hand to blacksmithing, and make an axe or hammer, or even, after a lot of work, a few ploughshares. I could too.

I could make a gun from scratch, using bare component parts (no, not primers and powder! I mean mud and iron ore!), which wouldn't be as good as commercial ones, but would be enough for hunting game and basic defense. I've never made a sword...

Ancient seige engines would be quite fun, and I know enough to build those, too, along with earthworks. Military tactics - I've been trained well by Total War and other strategy games!

Simple electric devices, like a small generator, or a lead-acid accumulator (Car battery) wouldn't be too hard, and so light and electric would be available for special applications.

Basic and acid chemicals can often be made from scratch, using a little electricity, some glassware or ceramics, and a natural gas flame.

Waterworks are fairly simple, pipes can be made from clay, hollowed wood, old plastic, and so on, such that crops could be grown. Simple water pumping and lifting would be human or animal powered, and sewerage would ensure diseases like cholera were kept at a minimum.

Biodesiel would be difficult, as would producing viable amounts of any (liquid) fuel system except alcohol, so methanol/ethanol mixes would be my fuel of choice. Of course, that makes it tricky to use for lighting, but you can't have everything!

As a locksmith, scavenging in some areas would be interesting.
Since gold would be worthless as money, once a few bank vaults were opened, it would be great for making things like cups and other things that pewter was once used for. And since it "lives" forever, it would be one of the best resources for 1000 years time, as it will never change state...

I'm pretty well read, so things such as the ideas of germ transmission, hygiene, reading and writing, general scientific principles, etc. could all be passed on to the next generation. Schooling would have to be set up, but, believe me, only the brightest would be getting a shot! Anyone who was a bit dim would be used elsewhere, in whatever vien they showed a talent for.

Of course, I don't really think this is about to happen, so I stay abreast of the latest developments in computers, AI, robotics, etc. Part of me sees this as the next great threat to humanity - AI. But who knows? Perhaps the US military will realise that super-human killing machines that can take a direct hit from a tank and that are somewhat aware will never stop war, they will just make it worse when someone hacks one and sends it back home, or one decides that ALL humans are the enemy, not just the ones with suntans...

[Qfwfq]

I partly agree with nkt about back to craftsmanship, as long as some of the people that still have actual knowledge of them are among the survivors in some place. A great problem would be knowing the sources of all raw materials needed, even more that of oganizing things efficiently. The more contention, the less cooperation, the less chances of success.

Fortunately, we'll find a lot of helpful info by just switching on our PCs and doing a bit of googling on the net!

[Turtle]

___Do they even teach the use of handtools in schools anymore?; or have computer labs replaced the home economics & shop rooms? The arguments for familiarity with hand tools - their use & construction - makes sense to me.
___The big problem I see for if or how long it takes to rebuild, is which (who) .1% survives.

[rockytriton]

I guess it all depends on whether all of the college text books which teach things like agriculture were destroyed with the people as well. One thing I can be sure of, the first tools created won't be used for farming, they will be used for war.

[Qfwfq]

Originally Posted by rockytriton

One thing I can be sure of, the first tools created won't be used for farming, they will be used for war.

Unfortunately, quite plausible.

As for Turtle's point, yes. Many of today's kids get simple arithmetic wrong when using a calculator, and don't even notice when the result is obviously wrong. It's ok to use computers to relieve a burden, but to spare the effort of thinking at all is a different matter.

[Boerseun]

Computers will be available as long as there's power. If .1% of the population survives, there won't be enough techhies to keep the power stations running. Power stations are reliant on a steady and reliable flow of coal/oil/uranium, which will also be adversely affected with only .1% of labourers left. Pretty soon the power will be gone.

We can have petrol generators for a while, until the petrol runs out due to the same problems as above.

And finally, the computers will break down one after the other until the spares available in the stores and warehouses have run out as well.

So - there's so many interrelated threads in society dependent on large numbers of knowledgable people that if all there numbers are reduced to .1%, things will fall apart.

We might see a computer expert sitting at a dusty desk in a lonely factory pulling the hair out of his head because he can build a computer, but there's no silicone supply or something equally trivial. And besides, there'd be no power to juice up the factory.

Then - agriculture will necessarily have to suck up a considerable amount of available people, because the failure of the diesel supply will render automated farming impossible. And as the food supply runs out, there should be a massive increase in diseases people will suffer from malnutrition, no fresh veggies available, etc. (and seriously limited access to medical care). And that's not even taking the distribution of said veggies into account. The .1% of survivors will be so spread out as to force a concentration of the survivors in order to make proper agriculture as we know it, viable again. Unless the survivors concentrate anew, subsistence farming will be the way to go - taking up almost all creative and knowledgable people's time up and away from doing technical things to rebuild society.

Yes - we'll have people knowledgable enough to fend for themselves in a rudimentary way, like forging iron tools etc., but that's a far cry from modern amenities.

Methinks civilization will regress - and it will regress very, very far, regardless of all the toys lying around for the taking.

[nkt]

Originally Posted by Boerseun

The .1% of survivors will be so spread out as to force a concentration of the survivors in order to make proper agriculture as we know it, viable again. Unless the survivors concentrate anew, subsistence farming will be the way to go - taking up almost all creative and knowledgable people's time up and away from doing technical things to rebuild society.

Actually, it's been shown that the hunter/gatherer lifestyle only requires 2 hours a day to suppotr a human at low population densities. The problems arise when people get too good at harvesting, without knowing it will destroy the base population, because this allows a population rise, until the harvest collapses.

Yes - we'll have people knowledgable enough to fend for themselves in a rudimentary way, like forging iron tools etc., but that's a far cry from modern amenities.

It's not that far. It won't be possible to have an internet, but a morse based telex system over wires or by heliograph would work fine without much effort. Even voice radio transmission isn't hard. Modern gear will last for years, just needing a little electricity. Batteries have a ten year shelf life, and things would decay slowly after that. Petrol goes off slowly, too. However, as long as a little of the knowledge base remains in libraries, it wouldn't be hard to maintain the basics of modern life.

Methinks civilization will regress - and it will regress very, very far, regardless of all the toys lying around for the taking.

I'm not so sure. Everything will eventually fall apart, but low-tech fixes will be available, plus there will be so many things to pick up once the first one dies that it will be a very, very long time before things reverted to the stone age.

A cached gun can last 50 years easily, one in use can last over 100. Ammo that is 50 years old is regularly used by one of the clubs I used to go to. Wheels are still round, horses still walk about the place, books still don't need power supplies. Sure, we would lose the last 20 to 75 years of development in all areas, but that isn't the end of the world. So we couldn't post all day on the internet...

Give it another 20 years, and we won't be so able.

[coldhead]

Originally Posted by rockytriton

One thing I can be sure of, the first tools created won't be used for farming, they will be used for war.

The original computers were developed for code breaking & to calculate artillery shell trajectories.

[nkt]

I am going to argue further against Boersun's statements above, since I've just read a rather interesting article in Make magazine about the technology in use in Nicaragua.

Old school buses from the USA are in daily use, old bicycles are welded to wheelchairs to let the disabled zip about as fast as on a bike without batteries, and it stops them getting fat too!

Water filters that are as advanced as modern systems that are thousands of years old, earthquake resistant houses made of composite materials, caltrops, wheelbarrows, and coffee machines.

Most of this stuff is hacked together from bits of stuff that America has thrown out, or that has been used until it died, then been patched again. Not by rocket scientists, but by intelligent but fairly uneducated people with needs.