Statistics and Cultural Illusions

[HydrogenBond]

Sorry if I was misunderstood. Statistics is very important tool in science. But it does leave the door open to spin in the social and political arenas. For the scientist statistics is a powerful tool for prediction where variability is of concern. But in the social arena this same variability can be used for spin. With most people not truly knowledgeable of statistics, they become vulnerable to the spin. The scientist may be immune, but that is less than 10% of the population.

By 2-D I mean something that is based on cause and affect. Cause and affect are the x,y axis on a 2-D grid, with logical relationships a curve on the grid, which always touch a combination of cause and affect. With statistics, either cause or affect are not absolute, but are fuzzy with some variability. This fuzzy data allows room for subjectivity when trying to draw curves, i.e, connecting bigger dots. Causual relationships use sharp little points that eliminate deviation from cause and affect.

For example, if one threw a ball in the air, it will fall back to the earth. This is a natural cause and affect relationship that anyone can see. If one collected statistical data, there may be a slight deviation added because of factors beyond control. The scientist realizes these slight deviation does not take away from the ball always falling down. The layperson, will see this this slight deviation and may assume in their imagination that the ball may sometimes, on very rare occations keep going up, since the relationship is not 100% perfect. The spin doctors can use this subjectivity and encourgage things that are out of touch with cause and affect.

If the relationship is causal instead of statistical, or solid math instead of statistical math, the average Joe, can plug into the equations and prove to themselves the ball will always fall down. Without statistics the spin doctors would be hard pressed to convince them otherwise. Statistics can be used as a tool or mind toy.

Statistics although very useful can inhibit the formation of causual relationships. Statistics can do the job so well at times that one can assume this is the way of reality. If one attempted to form a logical explanation, which may be closer to the truth, the statistics could created a self forfilling prophesy, that would subjectively dismiss the existance of a causual correlation. For example, in quantum physics one assumes random variability to nature, with choas becoming whats in vogue. If someone tried to use logical considerations using unified force theory that shows the deviations are actually logical expected and not random, this would be met with pregidice since everyone assumes random, because the statistics work so well.

[InfiniteNow]

Originally Posted by HydrogenBond

the average Joe, can plug into the equations and prove to themselves the ball will always fall down. Without statistics the spin doctors would be hard pressed to convince them otherwise. Statistics can be used as a tool or mind toy.

Not if Joe threw the ball hard enough... hence, there is a probability somewhere that the ball will NOT return to the ground, and that can be represented through appropriate use of statistics.

As for cause and effect, nonlocality is gaining favor.