Taiwan and China.

[Ganoderma]

As many know its a touchy subject especially seeing how both are such huge exporters to the west. It is elections here in Taiwan in 2008 and the green party has royally screwed themselves by stealing money. Basically the green party is "pro-independence" (they cant say that though) the blue is pro china (in a nutshell). The elections are in the same year as the Olympics in china, what are your thoughts for the future? Not just of Taiwan but of the conflicts that may arise with the west, Europe, and other Asian countries.

[Boerseun]

This is a very interesting topic, indeed.

Although I'm sure that there's a global trend towards unification of economic blocs, which should result in a streamlining of politics, the China/Taiwan issue remains unique.

In your view, being in Taiwan, what would be the benefits of China and Taiwan reuniting? What would be the drawbacks? I honestly don't have much of an idea of what's going on in China, all I know is that the version of Communism they employ over there is far removed from what we Westerners have experienced with Communism through Cuba and the late USSR. And maybe China's rapid economic growth will make reunification irresistable to the Taiwannese.

But would it be a bad thing? Would it be a good thing? What would happen to the freedoms enjoyed by the Taiwannese, living under a freemarket Capitalist system? Would it also be a "special economic zone", with rights and priviledges not enjoyed by the mainland Chinese, like in Hong Kong? I suppose the Taiwannese will have to openly elect to join China, and if they willingly do it, they cannot insist on separate priviledges.

Interesting...

What do you think?

[jamongo]

Taiwan will be rejoined with mainland China, probably in the same manner as Hong Kong.
It is inevitable. The people of Taiwan will realize the advantages of being united with a super-power.
The question is, "When will this happen?". I believe within the next five years.

[Boerseun]

Originally Posted by jamongo

Taiwan will be rejoined with mainland China, probably in the same manner as Hong Kong.

Hong Kong was returned to China after the end of a lease by the UK. They have known about the termination date of the lease for decades. I think the only reason the UK was willing to actually honour the termination date was the fact that China guaranteed several rights to the Hong Kong population, sepcifically economical and rights to private property.
Taiwan have always been "rebellious" in the sense that they have broken away from China by themselves - there wasn't any third-party imperial state involved. So, if Taiwan is to be reunited, would the Chinese have to guarantee any specific rights? If so, to whom?

[jamongo]

I think the only reason the UK was willing to actually honour the termination date was the fact that China guaranteed several rights to the Hong Kong population, sepcifically economical and rights to private property.

I think the reason the lease contract was honored was if not, China would have marched their troops in and would have taken it over anyway. The guarantees agreed to by both parties just made the transition easier on the population.

When I wrote that Taiwan would probably be rejoined with China in the same manner, I meant that there would be the same type of guarantees. I believe that since it is going to happen, it should be accomplished with no bloodshed.
But, I state again, most of us reading this post will see the rejoining..

[Boerseun]

Originally Posted by jamongo

But, I state again, most of us reading this post will see the rejoining..

I agree - but if Ganoderma is still reading this here thread, maybe he can tell us what the support for reunification is like amongst the population? It probably wouldn't make too much of a difference in the long run, but it would be interesting, nonetheless, to understand the motivations for a whole country to give up its freedoms...

[Ganoderma]

Lets also remember that Taiwanese people ARE Chinese people....they all came over from china not that long ago....then got to suffer through Japanese rule (which was extremely horrible I am told).

First I should say that I am born and raised in Canada, so I can hardly speak for the people here. I have lived here for a year (in the country) and I am married to a Taiwanese women (I get a lot of interaction with all generations because of this). I teach English from ages 3 to 35 and here in the country it is well known they hate china.

it is basically a 2 party democracy here the green party being the pro Taiwan party (wanting democracy) and the blue party preferring the Chinese way. There are a lot of gray areas though, some like the idea of joining china in a similar regard as Hong Kong did, others (especially the older generations) flat out hate china. Some of the bigger issues Taiwan has with Chinas way of living is it is a communist nation, people here like democracy. Their standard of living is basically crap compared to here aside form the few wealthy large cities. Here in Taiwan the standard of living is not too much less than that of Canada and the US. medical here is not as good as Canada’s, but probably par with Americas in that you still need to pay for it (but not as expensive as US).

Schools here are quite good. In most areas people here speak Chinese and Taiwanese fluently (many city folk do not know much Taiwanese though), English is also a HUGE part of life. Most people here own their own house, car, pets, and send their kids to regular school and cram schools (this is VERY important. My village with 30,000 people has 1 elementary, one junior high, 1 senior high, 5 private kindergartens, and at least 6 cram schools (mostly English). What I am trying to say is the people here now live quite nicely and have a great standard of living.

The people who are pro china (definitely seem like the minority) are usually of the business type in the cities. Many large businesses move to china, due to cheaper labor. I think the fact that it is cheaper to manufacture there is making more and more people want to do business there rather than here. This is certainly having its effects here. From many people i speak with in the country, I have yet to meet one person who wants to be part of china. My brother in laws' wife is from china.

The other main problem (which is what is going to doom this country I think) is it needs to import almost everything. This island is tiny, 300km long I think and under 200 wide. It has 23million people... one of the main trading routes is the strait that runs through Malaysia and Indonesia (i forget the name). The big players (Japan and US mainly) are working to protect and granted malaysia/indo to protect the waters but kept much of it open. China is also now expressing interest in this area which if controlled by them could ruin Taiwan within the month (that number is from a magazine called "Taiwan Review" which states Taiwan has enough reserves to last 30 days...).

china also has a law stating that if Taiwan officially declares itself its own nation they will come here and take it. Period. So Taiwan has a sticky position that they cannot declare themselves a nation, and other countries are, understandably, cautious not to say anything of the sort.

Unfortunately i agree, it will happen. but it is DEFINATLY clear many people do NOT want to join them. At least until they become a more democratic fair union (i don’t need to go into detail about Chinas human rights history...).


One last thing*
The US, in 1987?, signed an agreement with Taiwan stating that if china does invade Taiwan the US will help out (how I don’t know). They used to be her ea fair bit helping with training and such. But the last 2 years Taiwan has seen a fair decrease in US interest. Last election the US sent very few crew to monitor things here (china always circles the island around elections with boats, presumably to scare the people).

My wife’s sister and her husband work for the air force here and seem to notice a large decrease in American interest.

Anyway this is all opinion, its hard to say what will happen….this country already has a very bloody history!

[Boerseun]

Thanks for the detailed reply, Ganoderma.

I think the cause of the slacking US interest in meddling with Chinese/Taiwan relations might be the growing business interest the US has in China, through off-shoring a lot of its manufacturing capacity to mainland China. I think the US is a bit wary of 'rocking the boat' in US/China relations, and will probably not do a lot to prevent unification.

That being said, is it the right thing to do to stand by while more than 20 million people lose their freedom to Communism? I still don't quite 'get' the Chinese version of Communism. It is not even remotely comparable to the Russian or Cuban versions. They have evolved in such different directions that I can't say it will be a good or a bad thing. I have no idea to what extend Chinese liberty goes, so I can't even say unification would be a 'bad' thing, as such...

[Ganoderma]

Put away they political bit for a second and think about the social bit. It would be somewhat the same as letting Mexico have the US in a way. Maybe a bad comparison...? But Taiwan would surely loose many of the freedoms they have fought for.

the political bit, i too have a hard time understanding what china is all about. They seem similar to US in that the government has their own agenda and they know they are big enough to get away with it. Business first I think is their modo.

Let’s look at it this way. You have one of your best business partners treating one of your other good business partners like crap. If you get involved you will likely loose one. Let’s face it, if china takes Taiwan, they still have china and they will still likely have Taiwan. Taiwan being forced to become china will likely just put a slight bump in production but ultimately make things cheaper here. There is minimum wage here and other labor laws that china does not have. If you side with Taiwan you may have them but you just royally pissed off your best business partner. Taiwan has a lot of thinking to do and it will be very difficult. With the current (green) party in now they are doing a good job of stealing taxpayers money and getting caught….the president is close to being kicked out of office now. Worse of all, the people are pissed off at them now (rightfully so).

I think the cause of the slacking US interest in meddling with Chinese/Taiwan relations might be the growing business interest the US has in China, through off-shoring a lot of its manufacturing capacity to mainland China. I think the US is a bit wary of 'rocking the boat' in US/China relations, and will probably not do a lot to prevent unification.

I agree with that 100%. China is the #1 manufacturer. In Europe china is #1 Taiwan is #4. In US china is #1 and Taiwan I think is 10 or so. Clearly china is financially the better choice. However this is not like Hong Kong, or even Quebec in Canada. Here people WANT their freedom and independence and mostly do NOT want china. Should something actually come of this (like a war, or aggression) it would certainly be a freedom fight. It will prove which countries truly care about democracy and freedom and which care more about money.

Unfortunately I do not expect much good to happen for Taiwan anytime soon. (i still keep a ticket back to Canada....just in case)

[Boerseun]

Originally Posted by Ganoderma

Should something actually come of this (like a war, or aggression) it would certainly be a freedom fight. It will prove which countries truly care about democracy and freedom and which care more about money.

Definitely.

If this comes to blows, it'll seperate the 'men from the boys', so to speak, and will prove where everybody's loyalties lie.

Interesting...

But do you think China will pursue this to such an extent?
What would they gain by that?
If they have to guarantee certain priviledges such as minimum wage and labour rights, then Taiwan would probably be more of a hassle than anything else, and be not nearly as productive as the rest of China...?

Or maybe China would just do this to announce to the rest of the World to start taking them seriously as an able contender for superpower status. This is, in my mind, the only reason why China has decided to invest a lot of time and effort into manned spaceflight. They probably didn't even think of the science side of it - merely an effort to fill the gap left by the USSR as the second superpower.

But you are right - if it comes to this, then we will see where the world's countries stand...