illiteracy - it's the end of the world as we know it

[paigetheoracle]

We are told that illiteracy is growing, world-wide. We also see large numbers of feral children, roaming the streets in gangs, playing truant, while their only interests seem to be in violence, stealing and vandalism and their only recreation binge drinking and drugs. Could this all be related and a sign that civilization is breaking down irrevocably?

All past civilizations have been marked out as having written records - all primitive tribes as having an oral tradition. This would seem to indicate that allowing for the current trend, this society is on the downward slope.

According to left wing propaganda black violence is down to years of oppression by the West (Slave ownership) but what if it, like white violence, is down to the appropriate expression of feelings by those less verbally adroit, who speak through their bodies rather than their mouths? Educated people, who face life's challenges, stay cool, calm and collected - that is present, to face what life throws at them. They alter life through legal and peaceful discussion, coming to common ground agreements - rather than react violently to what they fear and run away from life's challenges. Those who run away. taking the easy way out, are full of self-loathing for their cowardice (external blame as avoidance of internal perserverance i.e. effort). They seek shallow physical pleasures because they are afraid of using their intellect to solve their problems by facing their demons and staying present (What Eastern Religion keeps pressing and the basis of my prejudice thread also in this forum).

Until and unless we address the true cause of our problems as a society and as individuals, this slide will continue and violence will roam our streets, not peaceful co-workers out to earn a living wage (When lions and bears walk the streets, ordinary people stay inside their homes). If you don't believe this is the end of the world as we know it - open your curtains, open your eyes and stop burrying you're head in the sand. The Emperors New Clothes Syndrome beckons or the conscience and courage to do something about it, which is much, much harder, initially.

[CraigD]

Originally Posted by paigetheoracle

We are told that illiteracy is growing, world-wide.

We are told this (the quoted post can be considered a “telling”), but is it true? If so, over what time period, by what amount, and is the increase of decrease significant (that is, large enough that we can safely conclude our surveying method is accurate)?

Attempt, please, paige, to support this claim with sound evidence – a well controlled study of literacy rates over time, worldwide or at least in a sampling of locales. Until you can support this, or some of the other premises (such as increased truancy, crime, alcohol/drug use), the rest of your post is mere speculation based on unsubstantiated claims.

Originally Posted by paigetheoracle

The Emperors New Clothes Syndrome beckons or the conscience and courage to do something about it, which is much, much harder, initially.

Another relevant statement of this form is: The Chicken Little Syndrome beckons, or the common sense and discipline to accurately determine the actual conditions of our societies, which is, indeed, much harder, not only initially, but ongoingly.

[paigetheoracle]

Originally Posted by CraigD

We are told this (the quoted post can be considered a “telling”), but is it true? If so, over what time period, by what amount, and is the increase of decrease significant (that is, large enough that we can safely conclude our surveying method is accurate)?

Attempt, please, paige, to support this claim with sound evidence – a well controlled study of literacy rates over time, worldwide or at least in a sampling of locales. Until you can support this, or some of the other premises (such as increased truancy, crime, alcohol/drug use), the rest of your post is mere speculation based on unsubstantiated claims.Another relevant statement of this form is: The Chicken Little Syndrome beckons, or the common sense and discipline to accurately determine the actual conditions of our societies, which is, indeed, much harder, not only initially, but ongoingly.

This is based on a Canadian survey and it is I believe based on English speaking countries (league table evidence). I cannot give you more details because I came upon it when researching something else (Dyslexia?) and didn't bookmark it as I didn't see its relevance at the time (You always find a use for something, after you've thrown it out, don't you?).

I also base this post on what I see around me in comparison with what I saw years ago - local observation, rather than national statistics (statistics lie and can be bent to create a certain impression, simply by missing out data you don't in it). I can't tell for sure what is happening in the rest of the world but if I'm drowning, I'm sure the boat beneath me has sunk. Same if the river has burst its banks - it is reasonable to assume it is raining elsewhere or a dam has burst.

This is evolutionary. The speed of human life has increased and this is evident in shoddy goods and workmanship. Nobody takes their time and mistakes are made because people are not as patient and meticulous as they used to be (I don't believe the Twin Towers was dynamited, just collapsed because it was ill-concieved and poorly made - rushed work as in the house I live in at the minute, design fault after design fault because people didn't take the time to check their work but rushed on like their lives depended upon it).

I use logic and my own eyes, backed by being drawn to other peoples work in areas I wouldn't have normally noticed or thought about. Everything is born, lives and dies - that includes societies as well as individuals (Where is Rome now? Ancient Greece and Egypt as well as South American cultures and the Chinese Empire?).

I will try to trace the Canadian study - meanwhile look at the desperate spam that abounds. Would you call that literate? Clever hacking ideas sometimes but nothing that will last throughout the years and sustain this society (community).

[paigetheoracle]

Adult literacy and Life Skills Survey, 2003 (Canada plus six other countries)

[CraigD]

Originally Posted by paigetheoracle

Adult literacy and Life Skills Survey, 2003 (Canada plus six other countries)

The IES’s ALL survey is a good-quality survey. However, there are at least the following problems with using it to support the claim “that illiteracy is growing”:

• It samples only a single point in time, data gathered from 1/2003 to 6/2003. Although its website provides links to other studies that provide samples from different times (eg: the IEA’s TIMSS, which compares data from 1995, 1999, 2003, and soon, 2007) it makes no attempt to show trends in scores
• It is a broad test of academic and life skills, not simply a measure of literacy

A primary goal of the ALL survey appears to be to rank the US against several other industrialized nations, and compare general skills between different US ethnicities, not find change in literacy in the US or other countries.

You might find sources such as the IES’s National Assessment of Litteracy more useful. It presents literacy rates as reported by US census data since 1870.

The US literacy rate (literacy in this context is defined as the ability to read and write, not necessarily having acquired mathematical, scientific, technical, or other skills from having done so – what one might term “basic literacy”) was 80% in 1870, 89.3% in 1900, 95.7% in 1930, 97.8% in 1959, and 99.4% in 1979, the last data included in this study. Current US literacy is generally considered to be about 99%, little changed from the 1979 census-derived figure.

So, a claim that illiteracy correlates strongly with the collapse of society must account for the dramatic increase of literacy of the past century, and data indicating that basic literacy in the US and similar nations are at or near all-time highs.

Originally Posted by paigetheoracle

I also base this post on what I see around me in comparison with what I saw years ago - local observation, rather than national statistics (statistics lie and can be bent to create a certain impression, simply by missing out data you don't in it). I can't tell for sure what is happening in the rest of the world but if I'm drowning, I'm sure the boat beneath me has sunk.

This sort of data, no matter how heartfelt, must be considered anecdotal.

While statistics can be manipulated, short of outright fabrication of data, they can’t be made to truly lie if published adequately, as many people with skill in analyzing statistical data can detect such manipulation.

Anecdotes, on the other hand, can’t be objectively measured and verified in this way, so cannot be used to support scientific claims, only as a guide in obtaining data that can be.

Originally Posted by paigetheoracle

… meanwhile look at the desperate spam that abounds. Would you call that literate?

Yes, I consider the typical email and print and electronic spam as evidence of a fairly high literacy rate in their target audience, as most of it is not understandable to someone who is illiterate. Spam target toward an illiterate audience would use pictures, not text.

A good example of “illiterate spam” can be seen in the labeling of food products, which typically bear a picture of the food contained in the package.

One of my personal literacy anecdotes comes from stories of a college friend’s grandmother, a woman born ca. 1900 in Western West Virginia, who was illiterate. Occasionally, package labels that showed additional “serving suggestion” ingredients caused her to purchase foods she didn’t intend to. Knowing this, her grocer would often review her purchases with her at the check-out, to be sure she wasn’t fooled by such confusing graphics. This woman was not stupid or senile. In conversations I had with her, she showed an encyclopedic knowledge of wild plants and local farming and small livestock husbandry techniques (she was a rabbit rancher). She was, however, almost entirely illiterate, unable to identify all 26 letters of the Latin alphabet, and able to recognize only a small collection of printed words.

[Michaelangelica]

You can extract some interesting comparisons from this site
NationMaster - Literacy > Adults at low literacy level (most recent) by country
although I am not sure how up to date their figures are
Regardless the following paints a grim picture

Education Statistics > Literacy > Adults at low literacy level (most recent) by country
VIEW DATA: Totals
Definition Source Printable version
Bar Graph Map Correlations

Showing latest available data.
Rank Countries Amount (top to bottom)
#1 Portugal: 80.1%
#2 Poland: 76.1%
#3 Hungary: 67.1%
#4 Ireland: 57%
#5 New Zealand: 50.6%
#6 United Kingdom: 50.4%
#7 United States: 49.6%
#8 Switzerland: 47.2%
#9 Australia: 44.8%
#10 Canada: 42.9%
#11 Czech Republic: 42.3%
#12 Germany: 41.7%
#13 Finland: 36.8%
#14 Netherlands: 35.9%
#15 Denmark: 32%
#16 Norway: 29.7%
#17 Sweden: 25.1%
Weighted average: 47.6%

Education Statistics > Literacy > Adults at high literacy level (most recent) by country
VIEW DATA: Totals
Definition Source Printable version
Bar Graph Map Correlations

Showing latest available data.
Rank Countries Amount (top to bottom)
#1 Sweden: 35.5%
#2 Norway: 29.4%
#3 Denmark: 25.4%
#4 Finland: 25.1%
#5 Canada: 25.1%
#6 Netherlands: 20%
#7 Czech Republic: 19.6%
#8 United Kingdom: 19.1%
#9 United States: 19%
#10 Germany: 18.9%
#11 New Zealand: 17.6%
#12 Australia: 17.4%
#13 Switzerland: 16.1%
#14 Ireland: 11.5%
#15 Hungary: 8%
#16 Poland: 5.8%
#17 Portugal: 3.2%
Weighted average: 18.6%

[Racoon]

Originally Posted by paigetheoracle

We are told that illiteracy is growing, world-wide. We also see large numbers of feral children, roaming the streets in gangs, playing truant, while their only interests seem to be in violence, stealing and vandalism and their only recreation binge drinking and drugs. Could this all be related and a sign that civilization is breaking down irrevocably?

.

Paige's opening paragraph reminds me of the book Clockwork Orange I finished reading shortly ago.

Packs of teenagers, uninterested in school, and looking to fight and rob.

I would contend a couple main points:
Illiteracy is growing. Perhaps, but so is the world population. If you add a 100 million more people, then there will be more illiteracy by the numbers.
More people = more illiteracy.
The largest rate of pop. growth is in the 3rd world, which have higher illiteracy rates to begin with...

Is this a sign that civilization is breaking down?
I don't think so. I'm sure the illiteracy rate in the 1300's was at a higher percentage rate than it is now, and somehow humans have managed.

Interesting discussion, and great points by Craig, and some nice statistics by micheal.

[CraigD]

Originally Posted by Racoon

I would contend a couple main points:
Illiteracy is growing. Perhaps, but so is the world population. If you add a 100 million more people, then there will be more illiteracy by the numbers.
More people = more illiteracy.
The largest rate of pop. growth is in the 3rd world, which have higher illiteracy rates to begin with...

I was curious about the per capita vs. gross illiteracy rates, so did a quick combination of the population data from Demographics of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and literacy data from National Assessment of Adult Literacy (NAAL) - 120 Years of Literacy, getting the following:

         POPULATION
YEAR   TOTAL  ILLITERATE  
1870  38558371   7711674  .2
1880  49371340   8393128  .17
1890  62979766   8376309  .133
1900  76212168   8154702  .107
1910  92228496   7101594  .077
1920 106021537   6361292  .06
1930 123202624   5297713  .043
1940 132164569   3832773  .029
1950 151325798   3783145  .025
1960 179323175   3945110  .022
1970 203211926   2032119  .01
1980 226545805   1359275  .006

This data is limited to the US, but shows that increased literacy has tended to outpaced population growth, so that there were many more (about 5 times) people, there many fewer (about 1/6th) illiterate people age 14 and over in the US in 1980 than in 1880.

Barring a breakthrough in education that lowers illiteracy to nearly 0%, however, I don’t think this trend can continue, and suspect it has reversed since 1980. It’s more difficult to decrease illiteracy from 0.6% to 0.45% than it was to decrease it from 20% to 10%, or even 10% to 0.6%, but easy for the population to have increased from 226545805 in 1980 to 303260872 now. Eventually, as the population continues to increase, the number of illiterate adults must also increase.

[ErlyRisa]

What would be interesting is wether or not this data would correlate with Autistic rates?

Seems to me that (in the west at least) Younger minds are rearing children .... of course I am just giving ammo to our left wing proponents to license parenting, but hey, an observation is an observation.

For example SIDS - was on the rise in the 70s and 80's and has pretty much been halted, just by making it known to new parents that they actually have to look after their new pet.

The problem is too many Aerobics intructors. If the Aerobics craze had never occurred in the 80's we wouldn't have mothers today more concerned about thier diets and Fat belly headphones to play mozart to thier unborn.

I would also look into other obvious "diseases"

Asthma
Peanut and Milk alergies
Hayfever (which has suprisingly started to drop - I presume it's not as trendy anymore)

A tip for mothers -- actually have an epiphany! - feel life, don't get hyped up by what Gloria Estefan is doing with her unborn. Be a real person - actually it's a good tip for just about anyone.

-You could probably neatly graph the number of Caesarian sections
to the number of children attending Scouts,
the number of 4wd's at schools,
the number of female only gyms,
the proportion of female teachers,
world vision funding,
letters to the editor that start with the phrase "I am very concerned",
female speeding tickets,
marriage rates,
(and I am going to cop it for this one) homosexuality,
myspace/facebook uptake, sms, parental control software,
trampoline fences,
kids riding bikes,
kids climbing trees, kids writing letter's to the editor that start with "I am deeply concerned" - you see the kids have been taught by the teachers which use a different vocabulary,

-With each generation, it becomes easier for big brother to control them, funny how it's the Baby Boomers that started it all - the ones that were "against the establishment" reared young that rear young that etc etc until finally we are just one in mind and soul.
-We are one, but we are many, and from all the lands on earth we come. We sing with one voice

There are two types of people on this planet - the guy that re-invented the surfboard strap as a Kiddy leash - and the people that buy it.
As for illiteracy - I wouldn't worry about the US - you guys have the highest Vocabularity abilities on the planet.
This is just a guestimate, but as a baseline if you were to compare other English speaking nation's populous' average vocabulary set to a Yank's.

Affluent Average Below
England 60% 50% 10% (thier are british kids that you would have a hard time understanding a single word because it's all TV giberish)
Canada 80% 70% 150% (Canadians are doing allright)
New Zeal 50% 50% 80% (Pretty much the same as the US, thier are demographics in New Zealand which speak in rap to approx levels as thier US counter parts)
Australia 50% 50% 60% (the only reason I place this lower than NZ is that the Rap scene isn't as big here, hence no avenue to develop a vocab)

Every Yank I have ever met has a much more dynamic and elobarote Vocabulary than any other english speaking nation.

Actually I'll take a guess at, that the average US english speaking person has twice the word bank (if not more) than those even in non English speaking nations.
I say this from experience. I can speak another language (being of ethnic background). I often meet fresh citizens from the country of my heritage, and they are quite bemused by the Language that I use (in of course thier native tongue - not english)
I postualte that what is actually happeneing is that I am using my English vocabulary set, and sentence structure, as subconsciencly tuaght to me by the media, and converting it into the equivalent in my ethnic tongue. In effect, the natural ethnic listening to my gramatics and vocab, subconsciencly are hearing the same media style tongue that they hear in english when they watch hollywood movies for example - but know they are hearing it in thier actual language in a fluent manner -= and it agrees with them.

--It's like, not only has english been formatted - but those that grew up speaking english, but know of another language, format that language in english... and the person that has never spoken a word of english, but of course lives in the western world(watch's Hollywood) - actually prefers the US formated version of thier very own language.
-Everytime I speak to a new ethnic in my heritage tongue, thier first comment is...
your language is "very clean" --in other words, they have "never actually" heard this formated language - but subconsciencly they have - hence it's agree-able.

This is how big bro - controls the populous. -Sub first, hence conscience will agree.

[paigetheoracle]

Originally Posted by ErlyRisa

What would be interesting is wether or not this data would correlate with Autistic rates?

Seems to me that (in the west at least) Younger minds are rearing children .... of course I am just giving ammo to our left wing proponents to license parenting, but hey, an observation is an observation.

For example SIDS - was on the rise in the 70s and 80's and has pretty much been halted, just by making it known to new parents that they actually have to look after their new pet.

The problem is too many Aerobics intructors. If the Aerobics craze had never occurred in the 80's we wouldn't have mothers today more concerned about thier diets and Fat belly headphones to play mozart to thier unborn.

I would also look into other obvious "diseases"

Asthma
Peanut and Milk alergies
Hayfever (which has suprisingly started to drop - I presume it's not as trendy anymore)

A tip for mothers -- actually have an epiphany! - feel life, don't get hyped up by what Gloria Estefan is doing with her unborn. Be a real person - actually it's a good tip for just about anyone.

-You could probably neatly graph the number of Caesarian sections
to the number of children attending Scouts,
the number of 4wd's at schools,
the number of female only gyms,
the proportion of female teachers,
world vision funding,
letters to the editor that start with the phrase "I am very concerned",
female speeding tickets,
marriage rates,
(and I am going to cop it for this one) homosexuality,
myspace/facebook uptake, sms, parental control software,
trampoline fences,
kids riding bikes,
kids climbing trees, kids writing letter's to the editor that start with "I am deeply concerned" - you see the kids have been taught by the teachers which use a different vocabulary,

-With each generation, it becomes easier for big brother to control them, funny how it's the Baby Boomers that started it all - the ones that were "against the establishment" reared young that rear young that etc etc until finally we are just one in mind and soul.
-We are one, but we are many, and from all the lands on earth we come. We sing with one voice

There are two types of people on this planet - the guy that re-invented the surfboard strap as a Kiddy leash - and the people that buy it.
As for illiteracy - I wouldn't worry about the US - you guys have the highest Vocabularity abilities on the planet.
This is just a guestimate, but as a baseline if you were to compare other English speaking nation's populous' average vocabulary set to a Yank's.

Affluent Average Below
England 60% 50% 10% (thier are british kids that you would have a hard time understanding a single word because it's all TV giberish)
Canada 80% 70% 150% (Canadians are doing allright)
New Zeal 50% 50% 80% (Pretty much the same as the US, thier are demographics in New Zealand which speak in rap to approx levels as thier US counter parts)
Australia 50% 50% 60% (the only reason I place this lower than NZ is that the Rap scene isn't as big here, hence no avenue to develop a vocab)

Every Yank I have ever met has a much more dynamic and elobarote Vocabulary than any other english speaking nation.

Actually I'll take a guess at, that the average US english speaking person has twice the word bank (if not more) than those even in non English speaking nations.
I say this from experience. I can speak another language (being of ethnic background). I often meet fresh citizens from the country of my heritage, and they are quite bemused by the Language that I use (in of course thier native tongue - not english)
I postualte that what is actually happeneing is that I am using my English vocabulary set, and sentence structure, as subconsciencly tuaght to me by the media, and converting it into the equivalent in my ethnic tongue. In effect, the natural ethnic listening to my gramatics and vocab, subconsciencly are hearing the same media style tongue that they hear in english when they watch hollywood movies for example - but know they are hearing it in thier actual language in a fluent manner -= and it agrees with them.

--It's like, not only has english been formatted - but those that grew up speaking english, but know of another language, format that language in english... and the person that has never spoken a word of english, but of course lives in the western world(watch's Hollywood) - actually prefers the US formated version of thier very own language.
-Everytime I speak to a new ethnic in my heritage tongue, thier first comment is...
your language is "very clean" --in other words, they have "never actually" heard this formated language - but subconsciencly they have - hence it's agree-able.

This is how big bro - controls the populous. -Sub first, hence conscience will agree.

Firstly, American English is simpler than Standard English, used in most commonwealth countries still I presume. They also create no-end of jargon (made-up words)

Secondly, while your spelling is all over the place (typing error?), you make the point by example, that reading doesn't require correct spelling to be comprehended correctly.