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Old 05-07-2009   #11 (permalink)
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Re: How secure is our space project future?

Oh Man! Does this thread ever hit on subjects that tighten my jaw and raise my blood pressure! 1......2......3.....>..10

OK. Calm now. First off, it isn't that intelligence is dropping off. It's education, and the desire to be educated that has dropped off. I have met people who actually think The Flintstones is representative of the past and fundamentalist religion is the worst offender since not only does it teach that Science can't be trusted, even while it clamors for scientific respecaiblity, on it's most basic level it teaches people they are too stupid to figure anything out for themselves and are better off accepting "higher authority" and any critical thought is demonized. For example, a common "argument" against both Evolution and the non-biblical age of the Earth is that "Carbon 14 dating isn't that accurate". If one asks just how inaccurate do you suppose it must be to be off by a factor of almost a billion to one and who in their right mind would even use a yardstick with a 10% error margin, they are speechless because they've never even bothered to ask such a question. Try explaining that gravity is a theory in the scientific sense. If one asks fundamental questions such as "Is the Universe knowable?" and applies it as in "If the fossil record actually reflects reality how can the Earth only be 6000 years old?" I have often gotten the answer "God can make the world in any way he chooses so he could make the fossil record appear to say something it doesn't" never mind that The Trickster role is supposed to be reserved for Satan and Man! will you get accused of Blasphemy and Heresy then! Faith is not subject to Reason so it is beyond me why they aren't kept separate

The above issue isn't the one that upsets me most since I accept that some people may choose Faith alone and others can keep their religious faith separate from this dimension and somehow remain essentially balanced. However the typical usage of Space Exploration funding as being wasteful in the same breath as "If we can put a man on the moon why can't we...?" insert favorite cause. These same people have no concept of the percentage of their tax dollar that goes to Space Exploration. In the US in 1969 the culmination of the Appolo Project took the largest bite our of the GDP and that was barely One Percent (0.01) of GDP or 2.1% of federal budget. In 2006 it had dropped to 0.0017 GDP or 5.6% of federal budget. However you cut it, it just isn't even a reasonably large percentage for research. It barely compares to actual waste from any point of view.

That was what it costs and a percentage that few detractors bother to know. The upside is equally ignored. Without the dedication to the Apollo program alone none of us dare imagine how different this world would be. There exists not only the direct technological spinoffs in literally every field including electronics and miniaturization, textiles, computers - hardware and software, biology and medicine (even in Sports medicine), chemistry, building materials, insulation and power conservation, solar power, fuel cells, and on and on (some are here NASA spin-off - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) but even that makes no mention of the incredible effect on processes, how business works together, how things are shipped, how radically new products can be developed. Whether you think about people who would not be alive, serices you would not have, or economic advantages your country wouldn't have enjoyed (how might The Cold War turned out?) or even international cooperation, the return on investment is almost beyond calculation and that is not even bothering to consider the increase in the body of knowledge of the world in which we live. We just take it all for granted.

The worst part is that we, the US, dropped the ball. All that networked cooperation just died on the vine and horses were changed in midstream if the return to a capsule-like craft and the scrapping of the shuttle are any indication. That's what was wasted. If you weren't alive then or have forgotten, it wasn't the money, that relative miserable pittance, that was lost. What was a crime to lose was the impetus and noble goals and so much of the reason why was that lousy war, the assassinations and political shenanigans that made the populace wonder if anything really mattered with a world spinning out of control approaching the brink of nuclear-tipped missiles raining self-destruction. What an unutterable shame.

Space exploration won't likely die out but it has been already set back far and for no good reason. Von Braun's plan to put Man on Mars before 2000 was abandoned to rust out just like the beautiful Saturn V which I heard doesn't even have blueprints left in existence. What a waste.

If NASA has setup funding for public relations I think that is a good thing. However since broadcasting is supposed to donate a certain amout of time to Public Service Announcements I can think of few nobler services than to communicate to the populace what we gained, what it actually cost relative to less positive pursuits, and what we lost, if only in the aspirations of our children.
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Old 05-09-2009   #12 (permalink)
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Re: How secure is our space project future?

I think most of us here in the forum would agree with you. The long term further of the human race depends upon space exploration and colonizing. We are running out of territory and, hence, the resources we need. Even if we do manage to control our population growth, we still cannot forever exist here alone on this one small planet. We have the whole universe out there. In some twenty to thirty years from now, we could be developing full fusion, gravity and/or magnetic power and be able to REALLY explore the universe.

What you describe is a breakdown in public goals and the will to achieve them---also in cooperation. What you need is an explanation of why that breakdown. What is causing it? It does no good to just lament. There is no cure until the cause is found. You say we need better education. We've been saying that for the last half century or more.

Our educational system is based on our secular ideals. Unfortunately, those ideals are not working any more. They do not inspire students. The old religions are now obsolete. We need a whole new ideological system.


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Old 05-09-2009   #13 (permalink)
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Re: How secure is our space project future?

I am going to attempt to keep this brief so as not to drift into a social sciences off topic thread even though I have a lot to say on this subject. Let me start by saying that whatever one's opinion may have been about Alvin Tofler's book, "Third Wave" published in 1980, the basic premise that human civilization has gone through "waves" of fundamental change as from Hunter-Gatherer to Agricultural through Industrial to The Information Age is a pretty safe bet. Further recognizing that such fundamental change has always been met with trauma and upheaval and would likely again is not exactly stepping out on a limb either, particularly now that we are in the middle of it.

The major question facing us at this point has been asked by Hawking and Sagan and many others and it can be posed many ways. "Is intelligence an evolutionary advantage?" or "Does intelligence, possibly compromised by the slow rate of changes in instinct, once it achieves this level of technology ie: splitting of the atom and genetic modification of viruses to name a few, always self-destruct?" So far SETI and others have failed to find any evidence that anyone else has ever made it, possibly the most pressing reason to continue the exploration of Space if only to find that answer.

While there are times I have grave doubts, in general I am optimistic, hopefully because it's the only way to live a positive life and not from rose-colored glasses. Numerous philosophers, thinkers, and political activists have in the past reasoned that it is to everyone's advantage, including the rich, at the very least in the quality of life in the world in which we and our children live to eliminate poverty. This isn't hard to reason since so much conflict from petty crime to war is between perceived Haves and Have Nots. However recently I read in a Science magazine in an article about budding geniuses who are expected to have a great impact on our futures, that at least one man heads a team who has employed a super computer to model civilization based somewhat on the idea of so-called "God Games" that can adjust and progress through algorithms changes in society's variables. Apparently in every instance if one arbitrarily eliminates poverty the results exceed all other variables. That super computers can now be put together for under $4000 US is just another reason for confidence in the triumph of Reason.

Additionally recent trends in Science to study systems in terms of networking seem to show that it may not have to be arbitrary or even all that difficult given the understanding and the will and that it may even be essential, especially if one considers the need for Hope among human individuals. It's not that every person that grows up in an oppressive situation that renders constant negative reinforcement, feedback that there are no readily available avenues to realize one's potential, an utter lack of hope, will turn to evil, or crime or even just against society in general, but enough of the smarter, more industrious ones that could be a positive force will to negate the good will and quality of life of many. This is partly why frontiers have been so valuable in the past as an outlet for the restless and ambitious who felt constrained within a society closed to upward mobility through clearly defined paths. This is even an accepted business model for maximizing productivity. I attribute the rise in anti-science and fundamentalist religions as well to the lack of such hope.

It seems to me we either must become aware and supportive of a scientifically derived social contract that practices what it preaches or else have frontiers available for the "misfits" who won't be held down. Better, why not have both and actually try to achieve an open society envisioned by such as Gene Rodenberry? It is quite possible that the only alternative is massive reduction in world population by either plague or war and who knows how many Einsteins in so many fields have already been lost to such?
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Old 05-09-2009   #14 (permalink)
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Re: How secure is our space project future?

Great post dude, I'd rep you if I could.


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