Predictions, How? What? Why?

[hallenrm]

Recently while watching a very interesting serial on the Discovery channel, called Sci-fi-zone, that dealt with the predictions made in Science fiction by popular science fiction writers like Jules Verne H.G.Wells and Tv serials like Star Trek' I started wondering on the following questions:

1. How do some people manage to make very accurate predictions for the future? for example Jules Verne described a design of the Submarine many years before it was actually invented.

2. What is the reason and method of making such predictions?

3. Why is the power to make such predictions limited to very few people only? Is it that they are gifted, or it is just a matter of statistical probability.

The last question is also pertinent to some people who are acclaimed to make rather accurate predictions about the destiny of individuals based on their Horoscopes or lines on their palms.

Any ideas??

[Boerseun]

I don't think there's anything special to these individuals. I think it's merely a matter of us remembering the successful predictions, and forgetting the gazillion wrong ones. Out of a billion predictions, quite a few should be spot-on, even if it would be seen as way-out science fiction at the time. And its all a matter of statistics, not any special qualities like clairvoyancy.

[ronthepon]

Excellent point, Boerseun.

I doubt if these 'predictioners' were believing their ideas to become true for most of the matter.

[hallenrm]

Originally Posted by Boerseun

I don't think there's anything special to these individuals. I think it's merely a matter of us remembering the successful predictions, and forgetting the gazillion wrong ones.

In my opinion that would be contrary to the spirit of science!

Let me explain, A prediction like those of sci-fi authors are like extrapolations, people know certain facts in science and think about what may be possible, perhaps a much more more imaginatively then the average. Now, all scientists indulge in extrapolations, in fact extrapolation is a very often a valid tool of science. But, as we know statistically all extrapolations are not always valid. There is a limit upto which extrapolations would work.

The Time machine imagined by Wells is perhaps an extrapolation beyond limits, but the predictions about the submarines by Verne or the communicator (the mobile phone) in the Star Trek are extrapolations from valid scientific principles known at time.

Innovations in technology is invariably through the visions of some extraordinary people who dare to dream, on the grounds of their scientific understanding.

Predictions based on astrological readings or palmistry on the other hand can at best be attributed to extraordinary intuition, a subject that has as yet not been fully explored by the science to date

[Boerseun]

Originally Posted by hallenrm

Predictions based on astrological readings or palmistry on the other hand can at best be attributed to extraordinary intuition, a subject that has as yet not been fully explored by the science to date

Au contraire!

These things have been studied in depth and in detail, because the potential payoff to whoever unlocks the scientific priciples behind predicting the future would be ginormous. Imagine how wars would be fought if one of the two sides can "see" the future?

However, all of these things have been studied in depth, and no evidence whatsoever was found that anybody possessed these powers. If you have evidence to the contrary, please bring it on!

[C1ay]

This thread looks like a good candidate for the "Mumbo Jumbo" forum....

[Zythryn]

These predictions (the ones in science fiction) come from the imagination of the writters. There is no more power in them than there is in Tolkein's imagination or any other fiction writer.

However, in some cases, I believe there may be a 'self fulfilling prophecy' component. In the case of star trek, a number of scientists may have been inspired by some of the things they saw in the series. They grow up and work in that direction. Viola!! We have cell phones

As others have mentioned, people tend to remember the succesful predictions and not the ones that didn't work.

Right now I am sure you could make a prediction about what communication will be like in the future. If you are wrong, no one will remember. However, if you are correct, does that mean you had any sort 'power'. It just means they either had a little insight into possibilities or got lucky

[hallenrm]

Originally Posted by C1ay

This thread looks like a good candidate for the "Mumbo Jumbo" forum....

To that I can only say, there have been sceptics before any new discovery and invention.

i am not really surprised by the reaction!

[Zythryn]

Originally Posted by hallenrm

To that I can only say, there have been sceptics before any new discovery and invention.

i am not really surprised by the reaction!

Hall, let's turn this around then. Do you believe there is some special insight or power beyond that of imagination and extrapolation (i.e. I can easily predict that cell phones will get smaller and have a longer battery life based on recent trends)?

[hallenrm]

Yes, just as some people are quicker and more intelligent to grasp a particular situation!